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AFL round 23 Preview: West Coast v St Kilda

AFL Preview: Round 23

West Coast Eagles v St Kilda Saints
7:40pm AEST, Saturday, September 5
Domain Stadium, Perth

Best Bet

West Coast 40+ ($1.50)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 194.5  Total Match Points ($1.88)

The Saints look to rebound from a 97-point loss to Sydney but against a West Coast side that needs to win to maintain a home final in week one, that looks unlikely.

West Coast $1.04 | Line -50.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.95) | 40+ ($1.50) |Ov. 194.5 ($1.88)
St Kilda $11 | Line +50.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($11.00) | 40+ ($51) | Un. 194.5 ($1.88)

Latest West Coast v St Kilda Odds

Selection Notes.
The Eagles have Chris Masten (suspension), Sharrod Wellingham (ankle) and Will Schofield (hamstring) to welcome back into their side. Jeremy McGovern needs to overcome a shoulder injury in order to play. They are likely to be missing as many as three of their best 22. The Saints will have Adam Schneider (retired) out from last week with Jack Lonie, Blake Acres and Eli Templeton in line for selection.

The Eagles are second on the ladder but were absolutely smoked by Adelaide last weekend. They have split their last four games 2-2. They are 9-0-1 (9-1 against the line) vs bottom-ten sides this season. The Saints have lost four of their last five games (with one draw). 

Stats That MatterThe Eagles and Saints have met 43 times with the Eagles leading 25-17 with one draw. The Eagles have won the last five in a row games by 4, 30, 25, 33 and 53 points. The Eagles have covered the line a league record 15 times this year. The Eagles are 15-7 both head-to-head and against the line at home in 2014-15. West Coast is 9-2 at home this year with an average winning margin of 63-points – losing to Fremantle and Hawthorn. St Kilda is only 3-17 (7-13 against the line) outside of Melbourne since the start of 2013. West Coast is 4-0 head-to-head and ATL following a loss this year. Six of the last eight match-ups have totalled under 174-points. Josh Kennedy has kicked the first goal in four matches this year. Eagles midfielder Matt Priddis has topped the stats sheet in six games this year

The Saints are a commendable 2-12 when trailing by 24-points at any stage throughout a match. They have won just one match when trailing at half-time whilst they’ve given up half-time leads in four times (out of nine games). The Eagles are 2-6 when behind at the final change which is second best in the competition. They are 10-1 when leading at quarter-time.

Betting Data
2015 Line:  West Coast 15-6, St Kilda 10-11
2015 Over/Under: West Coast 13-8, St Kilda 10-11

Final Thoughts
Yet another lacklustre final round game with another thrasing on the cards. The Eagles have responded well after every loss this year, winning by 50-points or more following three of their defeats in 2015 and The Wolf is backing that trend to continue here. The Saints are spluttering towards the end of the year and a trip to Perth is likely to see end their season with a sour taste. West Coast to win by plenty.

How It’s Shaping Up 
West Coast by 59 points

Best BetWest Coast 40+ ($1.50)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 194.5  Total Match Points ($1.88)

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