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A-League round 11 preview

Perth v Melbourne Victory – (Wednesday 9:00pm) 
The Melbourne Victory’s title as the team to beat this season is definitely under threat. They crashed to their second consecutive loss and have failed to score in consecutive matches for the first time since January 2014. That represents a stretch of almost 50 matches and has seen them fall to 4th on the ladder and 6 points off the Wanderers. This is the catch up game missed due to the FFA Cup Final and is ironically against the side they beat to clinch the title – Perth. The Glory ended their winless streak with a win at home to the Mariners and they will again look to take advantage of home ground in what will be their second of three games at Nib Stadium in one week. The Victory may have an eye on their massive Melbourne derby which is to follow on Saturday and after a grueling encounter against the Wanderers they may be slow to kick into gear. The Victory have won just 1 of their last 5 A-League matches against the Glory and with momentum with the hosts we will take Perth in the double chance market.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.15)
Value Bet: Double Chance – Perth or Draw ($1.97)
Newcastle v Adelaide – (Friday 7:40pm)
Although they left it very late Adelaide took advantage of the extra man after Sydney FC defender Alex Gerbsbach was sent of midway through the first half. Jeggo put the Red in front on the hour mark but Holosko equalised for Sydney and Adelaide would need a 95th minute penalty from Carrusca to seal the win. They now travel to Newcastle to take on a Jets side that is clutching at straws. They were taught a footballing lesson by Melbourne City and have now scored just one goal in their last 370 minutes of football. The Reds were always going to find their scoring touch and were creating more than enough chances to win games earlier in the season. Newcastle simply are not creating enough chances in front of goal and Trifunovic has done well to register 4 goals this season. The two sides don’t exactly put on a spectacle – 9 of the last 13 encounter have produced less than 3 goals. Adelaide should have enough class with Pablo, Jeggo and Carrusca but there will be no more than two goals in this one.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value Bet: Teams To Score – Adelaide Only ($3.50)
Wellington v Sydney FC – (Saturday 5:15pm)
A 95th minute penalty cost us both the Unders and the draw in the Sydney FC game last week as a 10 man Sky Blues outfit failed to hold on. They will be without Alex Gersbach who was sent off midway through the first half and it may cause some dis-function in what is the best defensive side in the A-League. The wolf doesn’t think that will be the case especially on the road where the Sydney have been nothing short of flawless. Last weeks loss in Adelaide was their first regular season away loss in almost 20 matches and after playing over an hour with 10 men Graham Arnold’s side deserve a lot of credit. They will again have to be on their toes as Krishna and Bonevacia have been in fine form for the Phoenix. Sydney will set up nice and compact at the back and will generally prevent Wellington from playing their preferred counter attacking style of football. There will be very few chances in the first half and the Wolf says if we are to see a winner it will come late.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value Bet: 1st half result – Draw ($2.15)
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City – (Saturday 7:30pm)
It’s the next installment of the Melbourne Derby but a lot has changed since they last met in Round 2. On that occasion the Victory were riding the wave of their Grand Final win while Melbourne City were still trying to incorporate the new pieces into their squad. In recent weeks the sides have gone on very different runs. The Victory are coming of consecutive heading into this round while Man City are absolutely flying and in search of their 4th win in a row. The Victory are well renowned for they high powered attack with Barbarouses and Berisha but it is Melbourne City who have gone on a remarkable scoring run. City have scored 14 goals in their last 3 matches and now have 27 goals on the season – 13 more than their cross town rivals. Aaron Mooy has been unstoppable this season and his combination with Fornaroli, the leagues top scorer, has been a huge part of their success. AAMI Park will be packed to the rafters and with the Victory backing up from a midweek game in Perth we will be backing the home side to take all 3 points and continue to climb the ladder.
Best Bet: Melbourne City WIN ($2.65)
Value Bet: Melbourne City Over 2.5 goals ($4.25)
Perth v Western Sydney – (Saturday 9:40pm)
The Wanderers celebrated the return of the RBB to the grandstands last week with a impressive 2-0 win over the defending champions. A 7th consecutive win has seen the Wanderers skip 4 points clear at the top of the A-League ladder and they are starting to look like the real deal. The Wolf cannot say enough good things about Mitch Nichols and his importance in the centre of the park but lets not forget about Mark Bridge who is playing some of the best football of his career. His ability to be the outlet on counter attacks an place himself in the right spot at the right time make him a menace to defend. Perth earned themselves a win at home to the Mariners but will be up against it in this one. They will be backing up from a Wednesday night game against the Victory and it will be their 3rd game in 7 days. Wanderers are the bet of the week!
Best Bet: Western Sydney WIN ($1.92)
Value Bet: Teams To Score – Western Sydney Only ($3.20)
Central Coast v Brisbane Roar – (Sunday 5:00pm)
Things are going from bad to worse on the Central Coast. Four consecutive losses has seen them fall to the bottom of the ladder and they have now lost 11 of their last 14 across all competitions. They simply cannot keep teams out defensively and last week was yet another example where they were leading at half time before conceding twice in the space of a few minutes. They are more than just lacking confidence at the moment  and things dont look like changing any time soon. Montgomery and Caceres will need to show some leadership in the middle of the park and the first aim of the Mariners must be to compete for 90 minutes defensively. They will get a chance this week against a Roar side who really enjoy having possession. Corona and Broich may both be 34 years of age but what they lack in speed they make up with in vision and controlled passing. Along with Matt McKay they are the motor in midfield and will constantly look to play the feet of MacLaren, Borello and Petratos. The Roar simply have too many scoring options and the Wolf cant see the Mariners digging themselves out of their current slump.
Best Bet: Brisbane WIN ($1.90)
Value Bet: Handicap Brisbane -1 ($3.25)

Round 11

Best Bet: Western Sydney WIN ($1.92)
Best Value Bet: Melbourne City Over 2.5 goals ($4.25)


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