Richmond have given Hawthorn some trouble in the past, but are long odds to do so again here.
Hawthorn continue to defy the doubters with seven wins in a row, once again using all their guile, resources and luck to pull off a last-gasp victory over Sydney last week, and cement their spot on top of the ladder in doing so.
Richmond has pinched a few wins against lesser sides like Gold Coast, Brisbane and Essendon in the last five rounds, but have lost to Port and Bulldogs in this time too.
Stats That Matter
Hawthorn hold a 6-4 lead in their last ten matches against the Tigers, belying their respective ladder positions over this period. Richmond have won three of the last five against the Hawks. In these five matches against each other, the Tigers are +166% POT, the Hawks are -52% POT.
The Hawks are four from six at the MCG this season, at -1% POT and 33% ATS. They are the only team to average more than 100 points per match at the ground since the start of 2014.
Richmond has the worst record at the line this season, and have failed to cover in five of their last six matches. The Tigers are 20% ATS at the MCG this season, and 32% ATS at the ground across 2015-16, the worst of any Victorian team.
Hawthorn are due to lose a game, and a Richmond in better form would be a team worth backing against them given they are a bogey side for the Hawks, and still might be worth putting a dollar on at big odds.
The Tigers have troubled the Hawks with a specific game-plan of denying them the ball in recent good performances against them, and play a similar style to the Hawks but without the overall skill and small forward options.
Hawthorn have played some of their better footy over the last two weeks, and should be able to keep it going against a Richmond that is still having too many lapses within games. Both sides have been poor at the line this year, but if the Hawks can apply pressure to the Tigers’ youngsters, they could create enough turnovers to kick a big winning score.
How It’s Shaping Up Hawthorn by 49 points
Best Bet Hawthorn -39.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets Hawthorn Total Over 108.5 ($1.90)