NRL Preview Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors
Saturday, July 23, 3pm (AEST), Canberra Stadium, Canberra
Canberra get the ultimate chance to press their Top 4 claims with a home clash against an inconsistent New Zealand team that is hanging onto a Top 8 position by just the thinnest of margins.
Canberra welcome back Josh Papalii and Luke Bateman with Kurt Baptiste and Clay Priest out. New Zealand have again left Tui Lolohea on the bench. Charlie Gubb will miss the match through suspension with Jacob Lillyman replacing him.
HistoryCanberra and New Zealand have met on 35 occasions with the Raiders holding the thinnest of advantages, 18-17. The Warriors had won five straight to in the leadup to the teams meeting in Round 11 but the Raiders hammered New Zealand 38-12. Canberra have a 10-3 all-time advantage against New Zealand at Canberra Stadium but have lost the last two matches by margins of 12 and 36. Six of the last nine matches have topped 44 points. Shaun Johnson has scored 7 tries in 8 games v Canberra while Jarrod Croker has 13 in 13 games against New Zealand.
FormCanberra are up to fifth on the premiership ladder with a 10-6-1 record and a +82 differential, sixth in the league. They have the second best attack in the premiership while they have the sixth rated defence. The Raiders have won three straight and six of their last seven. New Zealand are eighth on the premiership table with an 8-9 record and a -17 differential,, ninth in the NRL. The Warriors rank seventh in attack and 12th in defence. New Zealand have dropped two of their last three and have scored fewer than 18 points in five of their last eight.
Round 20 NRL Odds
Key Matchup Jack Wighton v David Fusitua. Canberra have seen their season’s fortunes turnaround with improved showings from their fullback. Wighton has been in scintillating form of late with a season best showing against the Cowboys. The Warriors have made the switch to Fusitua at fullback and while his kick return has been exceptional he has struggled with the playmaking element of the position. How the two No.1s perform will be huge here.
Stats That Matter Canberra are 10-7 ATS with a 10-7 over number while New Zealand are 7-10 ATS with a 10-7 over record. Since 2011, the over hits at 59% in day matches Rounds 20-26. Canberra are 16-7 over in day matches since 2013 but a poor 9-14 ATS. When favoured at home in day matches, the Raiders are 6-8 ATS with a 9-5 over number. New Zealand are 4-14 ATS in day road matches over the same time with a 10-8 over number. When getting a start of 4.5 or more in day matches on the road they are 0-4 ATS. Home teams off a win of 13-plus are 81-66 ATS since 2013, including 49-39 ATS when favoured by 4.5 or more.
The over is the bet in this game as is the Raiders minus. Both teams have been strong over teams but the main angle here is the Raiders at home in the day, which is 16-7 over since 2013, while since 2011 the over hits at 59% in day matches over the last seven rounds. Canberra can run in points which only adds to the confidence. The Warriors awful 4-14 ATS number in day road matches means the Raiders can be bet laying points.