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Welsh are overpriced to win

Wales v Belgium
Friday July 1, 20:00 BST
Live on BBC 1


It wasn't the most impressive performance that there's ever been but Wales did enough to negotiate their way past a tricky last 16 tie against Northern Ireland on Saturday.
Chris Coleman's side may have only won 1-0 thanks to a late own goal but in truth they never really looked like losing. It was a bit of a throwback performance to their qualifying campaign and after conceding against both Slovakia and England, it's now two clean sheets in a row.
There is still an overreliance on Gareth Bale in the attacking department but Sam Vokes is a decent foil for him and Aaron Ramsey is doing his best to get forward at each available opportunity. They also have options off the bench with Hal Robson-Kanu already proving his worth in their opener.


We saw one of the best performances of the tournament thus far on Sunday as Belgium produced a masterclass to thrash Hungary 4-0. That kind of result didn't seem very likely when they were beaten 2-0 in their opener against Italy, but on reflection, the display wasn't quite as bad as we thought it was.
A comfortable 3-0 success over Ireland was then followed by a 1-0 win at the expense of Sweden and with the latest 4-0 victory under their belts, they have now won their last three outings to an aggregate scoreline of 8-0.
It would appear that their key players are all getting into top gear at the right time, with Eden Hazard, especially looking a shadow of the man who put in a catalogue of ineffective performances for Chelsea last season.
Going into last Sunday, this had been the tournament of the low-scoring affair but since then four of the five matches played have gone over 2.5. It's also worth remembering that of the few earlier games to go over, the Welsh participated in three of them and the Belgians one.
Nevertheless, I'm not particularly enthused about getting involved one way or another here as despite over 2.5 being as big as 2.60, I think this particular match-up could be a slow-burner with the defences having the better of things.

First Goalscorer 

I tipped Gareth Bale to break the deadlock against Northern Ireland and while he didn't quite manage it, he wasn't far off with a couple of attempts. 

He will again dominate all of the set pieces and he's clearly the most dangerous player from open play as well. He was as short as 4.80 to score first on that occasion and he's almost four full points bigger for this one.
Obviously that's down to them being the underdogs this time but it's too big a price to leave on the table and I'm willing to let him redeem himself and compensate those of us who are reinvesting.

Recommended Bets

Back Wales @ 6.00 
Back Gareth Bale to score first @ 8.40

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