It’s the final round of the regular season which historically means big totals and blowout wins. The Swans can tie up the minor premiership with a win at home to the Tigers while the Crows, Cats and Hawks must all win to secure a top four finish.
Sydney need a win to cement a top two spot, against a side known for troubling them.
Form Sydney brings a five week winning streak into this match, having taken care of Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and North in consecutive weeks, adding 10 points to their percentage over this time.
Richmond has won one of their last five games, but have forced the issue in their last two losses, going down by single figure margins to both St Kilda and Geelong. Prior to that was a win over Collingwood when they were most under siege.
Stats That Matter
Richmond has won six of the last ten meetings between the sides, including the last three games, two of which have been in Sydney.
Sydney have won six of their last eight matches at the SCG this season, and ten of their last 12, with both losses by less than a goal. The Swans have covered the line in 50% of their SCG games in the last two years.
Richmond is one win from five interstate matches this year, at -67% POT and 20% ATS. They are +37% POT interstate in the last three seasons, ranked AFL #1. The Tigers have won their last three matches in Sydney, and five of their last six.
Betting Data 2016 Line: Sydney 13-8, Richmond 6-14 2016 Over/Under: Sydney 8-11, Richmond 9-10
Sydney have had their issues with Richmond in the past, and almost have some sort of mental block against them. This may be exacerbated by the fact that if the Swans lose, they could slip from top spot right out of the top four.
So much at stake, the form of the Swans midfield, and the lack of form of the Tigers should all combine for a simple assignment for Sydney, regardless of recent history. If Buddy Franklin doesn’t come up from a hip injury, this frees up Alex Rance to control the Swans forward half, which may prove difficult to overcome.
Sydney should have too much fire-power to drop this one, but Richmond’s record against them says they cover the line.