1.45pm AEST, Saturday, August 20 Blundstone Arena, Hobart
North need to find some form, against a Sydney that is running white-hot.
Form North have now lost seven of their last nine matches, and couldn’t turn their wins over Collingwood and St Kilda into good form against the better sides. They have since lost to the Dogs in a scrappy affair, and were blown away early by Hawthorn last week.
Sydney have won four in a row, against Carlton, Fremantle, Port and St Kilda, with the last three wins coming at an average margin of 79 points, and have had no lower than 30 scoring shots in any of those games.
Stats That Matter
Sydney lead 8-2 in the last ten matches between the sides, including winning the only match played in Hobart. Sydney beat North by 26 points at the SCG in May.
Against top eight sides, North are two wins from nine matches, at -60% POT and 22% ATS. They have won eight in a row at Blundstone Arena, and since the start of 2013 they are +31% POT and 67% ATS there.
Sydney have won seven from nine interstate this season, at +24% POT and 66% ATS. Against top eight sides, they are five from nine, at +7% POT and 56% ATS.
Betting Data 2016 Line: North 9-11, Sydney 13-7 2016 Over/Under: North 8-11, Sydney 8-11
The Swans are flying in the race to finals, all but shoring up a top four finish by boosting their percentage to have the highest in the competition. North are stumbling over the line, and may not even get their yet.
Sydney simply bat too deep through the midfield for the Roos, with too much versatility and a forward-line that has clicked well into gear. At the other end of the ground, the Swans have the tightest defence in the league, and North has run into problems scoring with injuries to Waite and Brown, along with form issues to Petrie.
Sydney should win this comfortably and continue their run, and the line doesn’t look high enough.