Adelaide, coming off a fierce showdown win, take on a West Coast coming off the most bittersweet win of the season.
Form Adelaide just keep rolling on, with four wins in a row, and 12 of their last 13. Last week saw a strong performance in a brutal showdown, where Port took it right up to the Crows, but they responded as good sides do.
West Coast have hit the right notes in the last three weeks, recording a big win over Fremantle in the western derby, a last gasp victory against GWS at Spotless, and then dominating Hawthorn last week with fierce pressure. The cost was the loss of Nic Naitanui to an ACL injury.
Stats That Matter
Adelaide and West Coast are 5-5 in their last ten meetings, with six of those matches being won by the away side. The Eagles have won two of their last three Adelaide games against the Crows. The Crows have won 10 of 11 matches at Adelaide Oval this season, at +27% POT and 64% ATS. They have won 16 out of their last 17 games there.
West Coast have won four of nine interstate matches this season, including three of their last four. They have gone at 22% ATS interstate. Since the start of 2012, they are five wins from eight matches in Adelaide at +78% POT and 50% ATS.
Betting Data 2016 Line: Adelaide 14-7, West Coast 12-9 2016 Over/Under: Adelaide 11-8, West Coast 7-12
Adelaide needed a proper physical hit out after three soft wins, and they got that last week against Port, sharpening them up before this important clash. West Coast is in its best form of the season, which gives them a chance.
The Eagles will miss Naitanui setting them up at clearances, with his follow-up work on the ground equally important in clearing a path for his midfielders. The Crows are without the suspended Rory Sloane, which will mean the rest of the mids must lift to cover his absence.
Both of these sides are in the position of hosting a home final in week one, but the loser will forfeit that right. Adelaide should just get up due to home ground advantage, but it might be closer than many think, particularly given the record of the away team in these clashes.
How It’s Shaping Up Adelaide by 7 points
Best Bet Adelaide Win 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Recommended BetsWest Coast Line +24.5 ($1.91)