Finals Week 3 Greater Western Sydney v Western Bulldogs 5.15pm AEST, Saturday, September 24 Spotless Stadium, Sydney
GWS have won their last three matches, and seven of their last eight, so their form is extremely solid at the right time of year, and their only loss in that time was by one point to a hot West Coast on the last kick of the day. Their most impressive win was their latest, comprehensively outplaying Sydney by a 36 point margin that could have been bigger. That result came off the back of a 37 point defeat of North Melbourne at Etihad in Round 23.
The Bulldogs just keep on keeping on, winning twice as significant underdog in their finals matches so far, and doing it easily too. They demolished West Coast in their elimination final, hunting in packs from the outset and never allowing them back in the match. Against Hawthorn last week, they had to back up that effort and intensity, and did so, never wavering in their commitment even when the Hawks pushed their lead out to four goals.
GWS and the Dogs have met six times, with the Dogs leading 4-2, but the Giants winning two of the last three. Their only meeting at Spotless Stadium was earlier this year, when GWS ran out winners 98-73.
GWS are +15% POT this season, ranked #4 in the AFL, and they are 65% ATS, ranked #1. The Giants have won six from eight at Spotless this season, and 12 of 16 over 2015-16, but have lost two of their last three there, both times starting as favourite. They have played 15 Saturday twilight games in the last two years, winning seven of 15 at -24% POT and 60% ATS.
The Bulldogs are +26% POT this season, ranked #1 in the AFL. They are +39% POT under Luke Beveridge’s command, also ranked #1 with only one other side in positive double figures. The Dogs have won six of 12 interstate under Beveridge, at +46% POT and 50% ATS. They have started $2.60 or more 14 times in the last two years, winning eight at +100% POT and 64% ATS.