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Friday, June 26, 2020

Bundesliga Betting: Ruthless Bayern to win again

Bundesliga Betting: Ruthless Bayern to win again

After a Herculean effort, the German football authorities and the clubs have managed to reach the final round of Bundesliga matches. Kevin Hatchard has one final set of selections.

First of all, dear reader, a thank-you. It has been a tough tipping run since the restart, with a fair few teams refusing to behave themselves. I hope you've still enjoyed and been informed by my scribblings, and if you got into the Bundesliga because it was the only show in town for a while, I hope you stick around for next season.

Bayern to enjoy title party

Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich
Saturday 27 June, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Bayern Munich will finally get their hands on the coveted Meisterschale on Saturday afternoon, and that presentation of an eighth consecutive Bundesliga title will be fully merited. The Bavarian giants have won their last 12 league matches, and they have dropped just two points in 2020. They have rattled in 96 goals and conceded just 32. Both of those figures are the best in the league.
Peerless striker Robert Lewandowski scored a brace in last weekend's 3-1 win over Freiburg, taking his Bundesliga season tally to 33 goals. He is seven goals clear of closest challenger Timo Werner, and will surely secure the prized Torjägerkanone top-scorer's trophy for the fifth time in seven seasons. The Pole loves playing Wolfsburg - he has scored 20 goals in 18 games against them, including a world-record-breaking burst of five goals in nine minutes. Thomas Müller has broken a Bundesliga single-season record for assists, while the likes of Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba have made seamless transitions to alternative positions (Kimmich went from right-back to central midfield, Alaba moved from left-back to centre-back).
Bayern have won eight of their last nine Bundesliga matches against Wolfsburg, and I'll happily back them to improve upon that record at 1.80. Wolfsburg secured their main target last weekend, as their 4-1 win at Schalke nailed down a Europa League spot. The Wolves now only have to match Hoffenheim's result at Borussia Dortmund to finish sixth instead of seventh.
Wolfsburg are a much more dangerous outfit on the road than they are at home, and Bayern should prove to be too strong for them here. Oliver Glasner's side have won just one of their last nine Bundesliga home games, including a rather limp 2-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in which they put up an Expected Goals figure of just 0.59.
I'll back Bayern to take the three points at 1.80.

Be wary of motivation trap in Bremen

Werder Bremen v FC Köln
Saturday 27 June, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Perhaps for the first time all season, Werder Bremen coach Florian Kohfeldt looked like a broken man after Saturday's 3-1 defeat at Mainz. His team blew a massive opportunity to leapfrog Fortuna Düsseldorf in the race for survival, and they had once again shown that they cannot be trusted to do the basics. Having started well, Werder gave away some dreadful goals, and only their second relegation of the Bundesliga era is staring them in the face.
Kohfeldt is a Werder man through and through, so this hurts a lot. He has received staunch backing from sporting director Frank Baumann, and at no stage has it felt like he has lost the dressing room, but the basic truth is that a talented group has failed their coach. Injuries have played their part, but there have been too many weak displays, too many mistakes made and too many lapses of concentration.
Werder must win and hope that Fortuna lose at Union Berlin, and the market has priced the hosts at an absurdly short 1.66. This can only be based on the fact that Werder need to win, and Köln don't, because it can't be based on Werder's record. Bremen have the worst home record in the division, with just one league win all season at the Weserstadion, so how can we back them at odds-on with any kind of confidence?
Köln haven't won since the restart, and have nothing to play for, but you could also say that the pressure of the relegation battle has now been lifted from their shoulders. Coach Markus Gisdol has warned his players they can't and won't be allowed to slack off, and although the Billy Goats have fallen well short of their best since the restart, there's no way they should be 5.20 outsiders here.
If Fortuna make a great start in Berlin against Union, that might break Werder's spirit, and Köln have the speed and the quality to take advantage. I'll lay Werder at 1.66.

Foals will be made to work hard

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha Berlin
Saturday 27 June, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Another example of the "motivation factor" at play is the pricing of Borussia Mönchengladbach for their game against Hertha Berlin, with the hosts a very short 1.38 to take the win. The capital club had nothing to play for last weekend either, but that didn't stop them from outplaying Bayer Leverkusen in a 2-0 win, a victory that means Gladbach realistically only need a point to win the race for fourth spot and the Champions League place that comes with it.
Hertha have had an up-and-down spell since Bruno Labbadia took charge, but he has achieved the primary goal of survival by quite a margin. Last weekend's win over Bayer showed how much the team missed the ingenuity of Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha, and I think Hertha can give Gladbach a fair few problems.
Gladbach are stumbling over the finish line, having won just three of their last seven league matches. Marcus Thuram is out injured, fellow French forward Alassane Plea isn't fully fit, and the Foals are still missing midfield engine Denis Zakaria.
Last season, Hertha won this game 3-0, and they held Gladbach to a goalless draw in the reverse fixture at the end of 2019. I'll give Hertha a one-and-a-half-goal start here on the Asian Handicap.