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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW33

La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW33

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions...

Celta to sneak big away win to gain breathing space

Mallorca v Celta Vigo
Tuesday, 18:30
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Celta Vigo picked up a valuable point against Barcelona last time out, twice coming from behind to earn a deserved 2-2 draw, and the momentum could be enough for them to edge out relegation rivals Mallorca. Vicente Moreno's hosts have just one point from their last three home games, riding their luck against Leganes last time out to earn a 1-1 draw from a performance in which they generated just 0.38 xGF. The visitors have a 40% chance of victory according to the Infogol model, though Mallorca will be desperate for all three points as they aim to close the gap on those above them.
Back the 1-2 @ 11.50

Sevilla to deny Leganes in low-scoring game

Leganes v Sevilla
Tuesday, 20:00
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While they were held to a fourth draw on the spin on Friday night, Sevilla were arguably unfortunate to have to settle for a point after generating 1.95 xG to Valladolid's 0.59. Infogol rates a fifth straight draw at 30%, but Julen Lopetegui's team are slight favourites to get the better of their rivals at 37%. Leganes have struggled for goals since losing Martin Braithwaite to Barcelona, posting more than 1.8 xGF in just one of their last six games and there's just a 45% of both sides finding the net.
Back the 0-2 @ 9.60

Barca to ride out Atleti test

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday, 21:00
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After their weekend setback, the last thing Barcelona would have wanted was the visit of in-form Atleti, but Barça's home form - with or without fans in the stadium - should be enough to see them through. Quique Setien's side have won their last two at Camp Nou, with their recent win over Athletic Club far more one-sided than the 1-0 scoreline suggests, and have been given a 48% chance of victory over Diego Simeone's men.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

Alaves to shut out Granada to stop the rot

Alaves v Granada
Wednesday, 18:30
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Alaves have been in freefall of late, losing their last three games and scoring just once in the process, so they'll be delighted to welcome a Granada side who posted just 0.16 xGF in a goalless draw at lowly Leganes in their last away game. Infogol's model gives Asier Garitano's team a 38% chance of victory, but it's not the sort of game you'll go to for goals (43% O2.5, 49% BTTS)
Back the 2-0 @ 11.50

Valencia can use home comforts to ride out Athletic test

Valencia v Athletic Club
Wednesday, 18:30
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Athletic's strong defensive showing on the road might not be all it appears, with 19 goals conceded from 27.8 xGA, and their last away win back in March saw them defy xG in style when scoring four at Valladolid. The numbers could well catch up with them at the Mestalla, where Valencia will seek respite from back-to-back defeats and a run of two wins in 10 - a run which cost Albert Celades his job. It looks like being a tight one, with Infogol giving Valencia a 38% chance of success with BTTS more likely than not.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.50
Betis to bring Villarreal down to earth after unbeaten spell
Real Betis v Villarreal
Wednesday, 21:00
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Villarreal's five-game unbeaten run and Real Betis' inconsistent form might suggest an away win, but the hosts have been unfortunate of late, not least when conceding four goals to Levante from just 1.52 xG. The Yellow Submarine have been riding their luck to boot, not least in narrow victories over Granada and Mallorca, while both teams' season-long records support Infogol's 66% chance of BTTS.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Valladolid to benefit from generous Levante defence

Real Valladolid v Levante
Wednesday, 21:00
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Levante's recent win at Espanyol was a rarity, seeing them concede fewer than 1.0 xGA during a season which has produced more than 34 in that column on their travels, and 30 actual goals conceded away from home. This should benefit Valladolid, who have a chance to build on a fortunate draw at Sevilla by inflicting a 12th away defeat of the season on their visitors. Sergio Gonzalez's team are 39% to win, while Infogol anticipates a 58% chance of goals at both ends.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Eibar to make it three in a row by silencing Osasuna

Eibar v Osasuna
Thursday 18:30
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Each of Eibar's last two games could have gone either way, but José Luis Mendilibar's team took their chances and emerged with six points rather than two. Their game against Osasuna promises to be similarly tight, with the visitors also coming off back-to-back victories in which they were twice outperformed on xG. Eibar, who have as many wins as defeats on home turf, are 42% to earn an eighth victory at Ipurua.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

La Real to pick up first win since March as Espanyol visit Anoeta

Real Sociedad v Espanyol
Thursday, 18:30
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Real Sociedad are in dismal form, with just one point from five games since the restart, and they got what they deserved xG-wise in Monday's late defeat at Getafe. Thankfully for Imanol Alguacil and his squad, they take on an Espanyol side without a goal on the road in their last three games, though the 11 in their goals for column betrays the 18.2 xGF which Infogol's model puts them on. The hosts are 53% to win, but it could be a nervy one.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.60
Real Madrid's defence to lead them to three points against Getafe
Real Madrid v Getafe
Thursday, 21:00
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Real Madrid have solidified at the back since the restart, with no team mustering more than 1.0 xGF against them in a single game, and the pattern should continue against a Getafe side averaging just 1.12 xGF per game on the road this season. Pepe Bordalas' men have more wins than defeats away from home, but have underwhelmed in front of goal since the restart, posting less than 1.0 xGF in three of their five games. The league leaders are 59% to win, and Infogol expects them to win to nil.
Back the 2-0 @ 6.80