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Friday, June 26, 2020

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW28

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW28

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines from a Serie A round which could see Juventus strengthen their grip on the title.

Juve to put Lecce to the sword

Juventus v Lecce
Friday, 20:45
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Coming off a 2-0 win at Bologna, in which they had an xGF of 1.80, Juve are given a huge 85% chance of victory by Infogol's model against a Lecce side which returned to action with a 4-1 home defeat against AC Milan. The visitors have lost their last three games, conceding 15 goals from 10.89xGA in the process, and stand little chance against a team with more than 28xGF in 13 home games. There should be goals, with a 64% chance of O3.5, but expect most to go the hosts' way.
Back the 3-1 at 12.50

Genoa to earn crucial away win in battle for safety

Brescia v Genoa
Saturday, 16:15
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Brescia come into this game off the back of a hard-fought draw at Forentina, but are winless at home in their last six and face a Genoa side who beat them 3-1 in the reverse fixture. The visitors shipped four goals from in their last match, at home to Parma, but the xGF was almost identical for both teams despite the 1-4 scoreline. Infogol gives Davide Nicola's team a 47% chance of victory, and a third straight away win could help lift them clear of the bottom three.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.50

Cagliari equipped to come out on top in tough Torino battle

Cagliari v Torino
Saturday, 18:30
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Cagliari and Torino are both looking for back-to-back wins after single-goal victories in midweek, but Torino's win over Udinese saw them withstand 1.99xGA and deliver just 0.57xGF. Infogol gives the hosts a 49% chance of a sixth home win of the season, while the model anticipates more goals than in either team's last outing (60% O2.5, 61% BTTS).
Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Lazio to stay alive in title race as Fiorentina come to the capital

Lazio v Fiorentina
Saturday, 20:45
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Title-chasers Lazio were dealt a blow against Atalanta on Wednesday, going down to a 3-2 defeat in which they took a pounding on xG. However, with Fiorentina making the trip to the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday night, Simone Inzaghi's team are expected to rebound against a visiting team which is unbeaten in four but failed to find a way past bottom side Brescia last time out. The home side have a 49% chance of victory according to the Infogol model, with a 59% chance of both sides finding the net.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.80

Roma can keep unbeaten run going with San Siro victory

AC Milan v Roma
Sunday, 16:15
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A 4-1 win over Lecce was a near-perfect result for Milan, who now face a Roma side with two days less rest. Stefano Pioli's hosts have been poor at home, though, with Roma's seven wins on the road giving them a 43% chance of making it five wins from six. It's the sort of game where goals should be on the cards, with Infogol's model giving a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and rating BTTS at 68% as well.
Back the 1-2 @ [9.5]

Cup winners Napoli to overpower poor travellers SPAL

Napoli v SPAL
Sunday, 18:30
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Rino Gattuso's Napoli have looked sharp in reaching and then winning the Coppa Italia final, and added to that with a 2-0 win at Verona. They should have too much for SPAL, who drew a blank at home to Cagliari on Tuesday and suffered the added blow of a stoppage-time winner from Gio Simeone. SPAL have just 10 points on the road all season, and while their goals tally comes in below xGF, there's a huge xGA of 28.47 to contend with. Despite Napoli's underwhelming home record, they should have too much for the strugglers, even in a game with a 60% chance of BTTS.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.60

Sampdoria to pick up crucial win after back-to-back defeats

Sampdoria v Bologna
Sunday, 18:30
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Despite narrow defeats at Inter and Roma, Sampdoria can rebound upon their return to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Infogol's model gives them a 39% chance of victory at home, where their negative goal difference betrays this season's xG. With only a defeat to Juventus since the return, Bologna's recent Serie A form won't be a huge guide, but their season-long away record of 20 goals for and 22 against suggests this game will have goals, as backed up by the 63% chance of BTTS.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

Goals on the cards as Sassuolo host Verona

Sassuolo v Verona
Sunday, 18:30
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After a hugely entertaining 3-3 draw with Inter, Sassuolo will want to tighten up a little at the back against a Verona team which has been performing well below its xGF on the road (12 goals from 19.07 xGF). Things might not be as routine as in their last home win against Brescia, but Roberto di Zerbi's team have a 47% chance of victory based on Infogol's model. Both teams scored in four of Sassuolo's last six games, and there's a 65% chance we get more of the same on Sunday.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

Atalanta to keep up Champions League chase with sixth straight league win

Udinese v Atalanta
Sunday, 18:30
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Serie A's great entertainers have scored 16 goals in their last three away league games, and four at Valencia in the Champions League, so this game is the last thing Udinese will want after going eight without a win in Serie A. With a huge 32.64 xGF on the road, Gian Piero Gasperini's team should have no problems in Udine, with the fourth place side holding a 67% chance of victory against a side whose last home victory came against Sassuolo in January
Back the 1-2 @ 9.40

Inter well set to pass tough test at Parma

Parma v Inter
Sunday, 20:45
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While Inter and Parma were both among the goals in midweek, the Nerazzurri were far more deserving of their point than Parma were of their big away win, based on xG. The visitors have nine wins from 13 away games and are 61% to make it 10 from 14. Only the top two have beaten Inter away from the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, with Antonio Conte's side particularly stingy on their travels with just 13.74 xGA, though don't rule out Parma getting on the scoresheet.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.60