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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Serie A Tips: Inter can't stop conceding, Sassuolo can't stop scoring

Serie A Tips: Inter can't stop conceding, Sassuolo can't stop scoring

Dave Farrar takes a look at the Serie A midweek fixtures, predicting that the Nerazzurri will allow even Brescia goals and that the Neroverdi and Fiorentina should provide entertainment...

Inter keep leaking goals

Inter v Brescia
Wednesday, 18.30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
The minute that Gervinho scored for Parma against Inter on Sunday night, my thoughts turned to this game, and whether or not to tip "Yes" to both teams to score, or whether to jump off that train and look for another one.
On balance, given the price, 2.32, and given that Brescia have now scored in five of their last seven games, my inclination is to stick with that idea here. I have little doubt that Inter will win the game, but I'm equally sure that they will concede chances. The question then is whether or not Diego Lopez's team are good enough to take them.
Inter have now kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 games in Serie A, and while they're pretty much certain to score here, I think that old habits die hard, and they'll make a meal of yet another routine-looking League game.
Since the restart, Sampdoria, Sassuolo and Parma have combined to score 5 times against Antonio Conte's team, and while Milan Skriniar continues his three-match ban, there's still a vulnerability about them which makes them great to watch, but frustrating to support. That trend seems likely to continue here.

Lazio undervalued

Torino v Lazio
Tuesday, 18.30
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video
This Serie A fixture list is getting increasingly brutal and Simone Inzaghi and Lazio face another game in quick succession as they look to keep their title aspirations on the straight and narrow. Inzaghi insists that the target all along was the Champions League that he's not too concerned about the Scudetto, but I don't believe that for a moment, and Lazio will keep fighting, especially as they still have a game against Juventus remaining.
Tired legs could start to throw up some strange results, but even allowing for tiredness and injury, anything but an away win here would be a major surprise, and Lazio are not priced as such, trading at 1.84 for the win.
I know that Lazio scraped past Fiorentina at the weekend, but Torino are a poor side, having lost 8 of their last 10. Lazio beat them 4-0 in the reverse fixture, and for all the talk of Lazio's squad being tested, the same will be true of Torino.
Lazio are an exceptional side, have a strong squad, and let's not forget that as Inzaghi's wounded side travel to a team who are considerably inferior. I make no apologies for tipping at what seems a short price, as I think that it represents value.

Ride the Sassuolo goals train

Fiorentina v Sassuolo
Wednesday, 20.45
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video
Sassuolo's first three games since the season resumed have now featured a total of 17 goals, and the chances of that trend continuing at the Artemio Franchi are high. Fiorentina are not crazy thrill seekers in the mould of Atalanta or indeed Sassuolo, but they are adept in front of goal, and I think that they'll relish the chance to take on Roberto De Zerbi's team.
La Viola have managed to score at least twice in four of their last six home games against Sassuolo, and while they've been dreadful at home this season, the lack of a crowd probably helps them, and given Sassuolo's recent form, I can see why Beppe Iachini's team are 2.08 for the win.
There's a temptation to pick out Atalanta against Napoli on Thursday as the game which will produce a hatful of goals, and I certainly wouldn't put you off backing that possibility, but you'll get a bigger price in Florence, and a decent run for your money at around the 2.90 mark.