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Saturday, June 27, 2020

Watford v Southampton: Saints can shine on the road again

Watford v Southampton: Saints can shine on the road again

Southampton have been one of the Premier League's best away teams this season and Dave Tindall says they're decent value to win at Watford on Sunday...

Watford v Southampton
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Watford on the slide again

Watford's story this season isn't an unfamiliar one in football.
A team is struggling badly, goes through several managers in a bid to get it right and then hits upon the right man.
The impact is pretty instant, he puts them on an upward trajectory heading away from the relegation zone but suddenly the momentum halts.
When everything seemed as if it would turn out okay, the battle to avoid the drop enters a second phase.
That's where Watford are now after just one win in nine - against Liverpool of all people - following a last-gasp draw with Leicester and a 1-0 loss at Burnley in their two games following the re-start.
It means they go into the weekend just a point clear of second-bottom Aston Villa and level with Bournemouth and West Ham.

Saints are strong travellers

Southampton have lost the same amount of away games (six) as Manchester City.
That's meant to be a compliment but may actually just reveal how brittle Pep Guardiola's men have been on the road.
However, a more flattering take is the impressive stat that shows Southampton with seven away wins.
Only champions Liverpool, last season's winners Man City and fourth-placed Chelsea have managed more and they'd all obviously be much shorter to win a game like this.
Southampton's preference for away days has already been shown in the two games since the resumption.
They started with a convincing 3-0 success at Norwich before losing 2-0 at home to an Arsenal side which had lost both games in June.

Jack Stephens and Moussa Djenepo are both suspended while midfielders Pierre-Emile HĂžjbjerg (thigh) and Sofiane Boufal (ankle) will be given late checks.

Watford look iffy favourites

Watford's need to win seems to be having too much influence on their price.
Just as they were against Burnley, Nigel Pearson's men are only 2.52 to take all three points. And we know how that turned out.
Yes, they're at home this time but four wins from 15 games at Vicarage Road hardly inspires confidence.
Southampton are 3.15 to record their eighth away win of the season while The Draw trades at 3.40.
Southampton's away wins have come at Brighton, Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Leicester, Crystal Palace and Norwich so they've beaten sides from most rungs of the division apart from the very top.
Quite simply, this looks a game they're very capable of winning and the price is there for backers to get stuck in.

Ings can pounce

It's not hard to pick out Danny Ings as the game's most likely scorer. He's joint-fourth in the Premier League's goalgetters charts, his tally of 17 one more than Liverpool's Sadio Mane.
What adds to his initial appeal is that the Southampton striker has done his best work on the road.
Playing on the break in wider spaces where his zip and movement are great assets, Ings has netted 11 of his 19 goals in all comps away from home.
The 2.52 for him to add another and make it two in two against Watford this season is worth a play.
Nathan Redmond would be another option. He's wheeled away in celebration in three of his last five Southampton away games, including the third in the 3-0 win at Norwich just over a week ago.
On those numbers, he's worth a look at 5.30 and it certainly does no harm that Redmond scored twice at Vicarage Road in Southampton's 4-3 win there in 2017.

Odds-against for a clean sheet

A look at the Both Teams To Score charts shows that Watford are near the bottom of the table. Just 12 of their 21 Premier League games (39%) have produced a payout for BTTS backers.
Southampton have given greater reward with a BTTS record of 18 in 31 (58%).
The market tilts clearly towards 'Yes' though. It's 1.87 so the 2.02 for 'No' could be of interest to some.

Opta Stat

In last season's corresponding fixture, Shane Long scored the fastest ever goal in Premier League history, finding the net for Southampton after just 7.69 seconds.