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Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Everton v Southampton: Ings to score first again

Everton v Southampton: Ings to score first again

Everton fans were left disappointed at Spurs on Monday night and Paul Robinson doesn't expect things to get any better for them when Southampton visit on Thursday.

Everton v Southampton
Thursday 9 July, 18:00
Live on Amazon Prime

Too many passengers for Ancelotti

The Toffees put in a very poor performance at Spurs on Monday, with Gary Neville, in particular, being very critical of some of the players. It's hard to disagree with him, as Everton's record against the better teams in the division is poor, and has been for a long time.
Carlo Ancelotti isn't a manager to stand for a lack of effort though, and while his hands are currently tied as to bringing in new players, I would imagine that he will make a number of changes to his starting XI for this clash.
Prior to the Tottenham game, Everton had actually been doing quite well since the return of the league. They drew 0-0 with Liverpool, before beating both Norwich and Leicester.

Southampton building for next year

The Saints were involved in the most watched Premier League match in British history, and they certainly rose to the occasion as they beat Manchester City. Given where they were earlier in the season, it's quite remarkable that Ralph Hasenhüttl's men are 13th in the table - and only trail Sheffield United by five points.
Danny Ings has led the way with 18 goals, which again is another fantastic comeback story. Ings broke his leg twice at Liverpool, and after failing to make a breakthrough into the first team, his move to St Mary's was seen as a bit of a gamble from Southampton.
His goals have been key ones too, as of his 18, 15 of them have broken the deadlock. He will be around [6.5] to score first on Thursday, and I certainly wouldn't put you off backing it.

Saints to march on

The hosts are the 2.18 favourites to win this game, with the visitors at 3.70 and the draw around the same price at 3.60.
It's hard to have faith in Everton following their latest performance, but they have followed up a bad result with a good one before. They are also on a run of nine home games without defeat, five of which were victories.
Southampton know how to win on the road however, as they have recorded a very impressive eight successes away from home this term - including both of their away games since the end of lockdown. Only Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have bettered their number of road wins this season, and that is a stat that can't be ignored.
This game looks pretty even to me, with both teams appearing to be evenly matched. As it will likely come down to who plays the nearest to their best on the day, given that Southampton are a much bigger price, they have to be the value to pick up their ninth away win of the campaign.

Back goals at Goodison

It's basically a coin toss when it comes to Over/Under 2.5 Goals according to the Betfair Exchange market. The Under is 1.98, with the Over available to back at 2.00.
Since the league resumed, Everton have seen three of their four end with two goals or fewer, with all three of them actually seeing Under 1.5 backers collect.
Southampton's matches have been a little more high-scoring, as two of their four have had at least three goals - and they scored three themselves in both of their away outings.
If we look at the season as a whole, the Saints have rewarded Over 2.5 backers in 20 of their 33 fixtures, with Everton following suit on 16 out of 33 occasions. I would actually have Over 2.5 at around the 1.80 mark myself, so I am happy to back it at even money.

Key Opta Stat

Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League matches (L1), winning the last two in a row. Saints last won three consecutive matches in the competition in May 2016 under Ronald Koeman (4 wins).