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Friday, July 3, 2020

La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW34

La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW34

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions in a week where Barcelona will aim to rebound from back-to-back draws.

Atleti to build on Camp Nou point by swatting aside Mallorca

Atletico Madrid v Mallorca
Friday, 21:00
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While Atletico Madrid may have rode their luck against Barcelona with a retaken penalty, a 2-2 draw wasn't an unfair result by any stretch based on the run of the game. The result ensured Diego Simeone's team kept up their unbeaten form, and they're 73% to carry that on with a win against Mallorca. The visitors will be entering the game in high spirits after beating Real Betis 5-1, but the 2.2 xGA per game they allow on the road explains why the Infogol model forecasts a comfortable Atleti win.

Back the 3-0 @ 8.60

Celta to rebound from Mallorca humbling

Celta Vigo v Real Betis
Saturday, 16:00
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While Celta conceded five at Mallorca in midweek, the contest was far more even than that suggests. Oscar Garcia's side are in better form at Balaidos, generating 4.87 xGF in their last two games as they took four points from Alaves and Barcelona, and Infogol's model gives them a 48% chance of extending their unbeaten home run to three against Betis. The visitors have lost three of their last four, including a blunt display at home to Villarreal last time out, and are unlikely to add to their one away win.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Valladolid to compound Alaves' misery

Real Valladolid v Alaves
Saturday, 18:30
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Valladolid will be desperate to snap the recent string of draws, especially after dominating against Levante and Getafe but taking just two points from the fixtures. The visit of Alaves could be just the tonic, with Asier Garitano's team scoring just once in their last three road games (all defeats) from a combined xGF of 1.53. Infogol gives the hosts a 42% chance of victory, while a high-scoring game seems unlikely (BTTS 49%, O2.5 43%).
Back the 2-0 @ 13.50

Granada to edge past goal-shy Valencia

Granada v Valencia
Saturday, 21:00
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Valencia's goals have dried up dramatically, with head coach Albert Celades losing his job as a result, and failure to score in four of the last five games could become five of six against a Granada side who knocked Los Che out of the Copa del Rey back in February. Diego Martinez's hosts might have lost their last two at home, but they tend not to give up to many chances and have conceded just 12 at Los Carmenes (albeit from 18.4 xGA). A win and a shutout looks like the likeliest combo, with Infogol giving Granada a 49% chance of success.
Back the 2-0 @ 17.00

Madrid to scrape win at San Mames

Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
Sunday, 13:00
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Real Madrid have developed a knack for squeezing out results since the restart, winning their last six games thanks to defensive solidity and just 10.1 xGF across the sextet of fixtures. Athletic should threaten more, having generated more than 5 xGF across their last two home games and averaging 1.7 xGF per game at San Mames this season, but Infogol's model has the visitors eking out a narrow win with both sides finding the net.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Espanyol to snatch last chance to keep relegation fight alive

Espanyol v Leganes

Sunday, 16:00
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Espanyol suffered heartbreak in midweek, throwing away a lead to lose at Real Sociedad despite only producing 0.14 xGF of their own across the 90 minutes, and they'll know nothing less than a victory over Leganes will leave them with even a faint chance of avoiding relegation. Their visitors have just one away win all season, though, and average 1.21 xGF per game on the road, while Leganes' six-game winless run will give Espanyol hope of converting their 37% chance of a win into three precious points to leapfrog their opponents.
Back the 2-0 @ 13.00

Osasuna to make it four in a row against Getafe

Osasuna v Getafe
Sunday, 18:30
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The last few games have been kind to Osasuna, with Rubén García's double settling an even contest at Eibar to hand them a third straight win, and Jagoba Arrosate's team have the momentum to edge past a Getafe side coming to terms with a narrow defeat at Real Madrid. Infogol gives the home side a 38% chance of victory, with Getafe on course to draw a blank for the third time since La Liga resumed in June.
Back the 2-0 @ 15.00
Villarreal v Barcelona
Sunday, 21:00
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Barcelona know they need to buck up their ideas, and they'll be up against it when they travel to face a Villarreal side yet to concede at home since La Liga's resumption. However, this could be the game in which the numbers begin to catch up with the Yellow Submarine: those three clean sheets have come from a combined xGA tally of 3.4, and Barça's problems have mostly been at the other end of the pitch. Infogol gives the visitors a 39% chance of victory compared to the hosts' 37%, so this could clearly go either way. It's the sort of outing which might have been decided by some Leo Messi magic in years past, but will we see more of the same? Or could we face the rare prospect of yet another 2-2?
Back the 1-2 @ 9.00

Real Sociedad to kick on after late Espanyol drama

Levante v Real Sociedad
Monday, 18:30
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Alexander Isak's late winner against Espanyol could be just what Real Sociedad need to turn their season back around. Other teams have dropped points of late, leaving Imanol Alguacil's team in the European mix despite their own poor form before that victory, and they are 43% to get the better of a Levante side which has ridden its luck at home with just 16 goals conceded from a huge 28.1 xGA.
Back the 1-2 @ 8/1

Sevilla to make light work of Eibar at home

Sevilla v Eibar
Monday, 21:00
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Eibar have not been the best travellers this season, returning just 12 goals from 13.5 xGF, and a trip to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuan is unlikely to change that. Sevilla's last three home games have brought two clean sheets and just 1.81 xGA combined, while the Champions League chasers should have enough firepower to keep their distance from the chasing pack.
Back the 2-0 @ 5/1