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Friday, July 3, 2020

Norwich v Brighton: Canaries can hold Seagulls

Norwich v Brighton: Canaries can hold Seagulls

It's been a miserable return to action for Norwich but they can at least get something from Saturday's game against poor travellers Brighton, says Dave Tindall...

Canaries losing their chirp

Norwich needed to come out fast after the restart to give themselves a chance of avoiding the drop but it simply hasn't gone to plan.
A 3-0 home defeat to Southampton set the tone and Everton also left Carrow Road with all three points after scoring the only goal of the game.
True, they gave Manchester United a good game in the FA Cup quarter-finals, losing near the end of extra-time, but the flat Premier League form continued with a 4-0 defeat at Arsenal.
So, add it up and that's zero goals scored and eight conceded in their three league games.
It leaves them six points adrift at the bottom and with just six games to try and pull off something incredible.
And yet, eternal optimists in the Norwich camp will note that after this game, they travel to Watford and host West Ham.
It's then a trip to Chelsea, home to Burnley and a final-day encounter at Manchester City.

Brighton looking safe

With Norwich (21pts), Bournemouth (27pts), Aston Villa (28pts) and Watford (28pts) going nowhere, Brighton's tally of 33 points is starting to look reassuringly healthy.
Currently 15th, that's seven points back from south coast rivals Southampton in 14th but six clear of the drop zone.
They returned to action with a last-gasp 2-1 home win over Arsenal and added a useful point in a 0-0 draw at Leicester.
Manchester United proved too strong for them last time as they fired blanks for the second game running and lost 3-0.
After this one, Brighton welcome Liverpool and Manchester City, travel to Southampton and then host Newcastle.
They'll want to make sure everything is done and dusted before the final game of the season - a trip north to Burnley.

Seagulls clear favourites

This is one of those conundrums for punters - a home team horribly out of form and rock bottom against a visiting side who struggle terribly to win away.
Norwich do at least have four home wins although the first two had come by mid-September when life looked brighter.
As for Brighton, after just five away wins over the previous two campaigns, it looked as if new boss Graham Potter had immediately cracked the code when guiding them to a 3-0 win at Watford on opening day.
They also won at Arsenal in December but that's it. Just two away wins in the Premier League all season.
In which case it's hard to rush out and back Brighton just 2.34 - even though the opposition are propping up the table.
Norwich are 3.50 to give themselves a lifeline and bank just their second win since January.

Canaries capable of a point

True, Daniel Farke's side seem to have been given us no cause to support them in any way but let's quickly revisit their results since the restart.
Those home defeats have come against brilliant travellers Southampton (two away wins out of two in June and eight overall - just Liverpool and City have more) and in-form Everton and Manchester United (both have seven points out of nine since football returned).
Of course, the game against United was in the FA Cup and went to extra-time and, if they can manage that, I'll take Norwich to grab a point.
Therefore, back The Draw at 3.40 - the outcome in Brighton's last four away games.

Follow numbers and get shy of goals

It's pretty obvious which way 2.5 goals market will lean.
Norwich have failed to find the net in three of their last four top-flight games - although note that they've never gone three home games without a goal in their Premier League history.
Brighton, meanwhile, have recorded a blank in four of their last five Premier League outings.
To be honest, I was expecting Unders to be a fair bit shorter than it is on those numbers so the 1.84 for less than 2.5 is worth a go.
Under 1.5 goals is 3.50 and has merit too and the Opta stat below adds an extra layer of confidence.
And, finally, it would hardly come as a surprise if both teams failed to put the ball in the net.
The 0-0 is 11.00 and has landed in Brighton's last two away games - at Leicester and Wolves.
It could be worth a punt although Norwich haven't played out a goalless draw at home this season.en

Opta Stat

Norwich's Teemu Pukki has failed to have a shot in either of his last two Premier League games. The Finnish striker had only failed to register an attempt in one of his first 29 appearances this season.