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Friday, July 17, 2020

Norwich v Burnley: Clarets can grind down hosts

Norwich v Burnley: Clarets can grind down hosts

Relegated Norwich can't find anything and Burnley should be able to wear them down to take all three points on Saturday evening, says Dave Tindall...

Norwich v Burnley
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Norwich going out with a whimper

For the last time in, well... who knows, Norwich play a home fixture in the Premier League.
Of course, no fans will be present but, even if there were, would the deflated Canaries have it in them to send the Carrow Road faithful home on a good note?
No-one expected anything but a struggle, though being bottom by a 10-point margin with two games to spare is miserable underachievement.
If they were going to survive, Norwich needed to thrive at home but the wins over Manchester City and Leicester have been anomalies.
The bottom line is that no team has won fewer home games than Norwich's four while their 11 home defeats is also 20th out of 20.
But perhaps the biggest disappointment of all is their run of seven straight league defeats since the re-start.
At least during lockdown Norwich fans could dream of an unlikely turnaround but the reality has been harsh to say the least.

Burnley fighting to the finish

While Norwich have capitulated in game after game, Burnley have been the exact opposite.
A great stat for Clarets fans is that they've won more points (12) than champions Liverpool (11) since football started up again.
And they've shown their fantastic resilience to full effect in the last two games.
One-nil down at Anfield with the hosts pushing for what would probably be a killer second, Burnley stayed in the game, found an equaliser and then held on for a point.
And 1-0 at home to Wolves, they again kept going to the finish, won a penalty deep into added time and walked off with another battling draw against a top side.
Those two points mean a win for Burnley here will guarantee them a place in the top 10 and they could still pick off others too.
If they avoid defeat, that will make it seven unbeaten for Sean Dyche's men and a final weekend home game with Brighton gives them every chance of stretching that to eight.

Burnley clear favourites to end with a win

No surprises in the betting and it's easy to argue that the visitors should be shorter against a team who seem to have written this season off.
Norwich are 3.55 to gain their first win since February while Burnley are 2.30 to return north with all three points.
Dyche's men have a decent amount of away wins to their name (six) and the victories at bottom half sides Crystal Palace and West Ham in the last month suggest they know how to get it done in games like this.
The Draw - Norwich have had just three at home and Burnley five away - is 3.40.
In terms of head-to-head form, they've played twice this season, both times at Turf Moor.
Burnley won the Premier League game 2-0 in September before a then much more vibrant Norwich gained revenge with a 2-1 FA Cup triumph.

Playing patient game can produce extra profits

While it's easy to look at all Norwich's defeats and simply declare them damaged goods, it's not been a total disaster - at least until half-time.
Looking at their home games post-lockdown, Daniel Farke's men were drawing 0-0 at the break with both Southampton and Everton before losing 3-0 and 1-0 respectively and they also made it to half-time goalless with Manchester United when the two met in the FA Cup.
On the road, they were 1-1 with Watford at the interval before losing and they very nearly made it to half-time with their goal intact against Chelsea last time.
Burnley, meanwhile, found late equalisers at Liverpool and Wolves while their 1-0 wins at Watford and Crystal Palace were achieved with second-half goals.
Put the two trends together and rather than take Burnley at fairly narrow win odds, I'll bump that up to 6.00 by backing Draw/Burnley in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Norwich may be in the game for a while but Burnley have the nous to see them off after the break.
As for the goals market, I'd definitely rather go Under 2.5, even at 1.80. It's landed in Burnley's last six games.

Wood can show his mettle

Chris Wood kept his nerve from the penalty spot to score a 96th-minute leveller at home to Wolves in midweek and he netted both goals in the reverse fixture.
In fact, the big Kiwi striker seems to have it in for Norwich having scored four goals in his last three league games against them.
He's 2.32 anytime but, as Burnley score few and concede even less, there's a decent chance a Wood strike could be the first of the game.
He's netted the opener in two of his last nine Burnley league matches - away to Man Utd and home to Spurs - so I'll back Wood to score first at 4.80.
As for his opposite number, Teemu Pukki hasn't managed a shot on target in any of his last nine league games, never mind found the net.

Opta Stat

Burnley have used just 12 of the 35 substitutes available to them in the Premier League since the restart, fewer than any other side. Indeed, the Clarets are making fewer subs-per-game with five available (1.7) than they were with just three this season (2).