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Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW32 part 2

Jake Osgathorpe looks at the second part of gameweek 32 in the Premier League, using expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and scorelines of the games...

Another Narrow Arsenal win

Arsenal vs Norwich
Wednesday, 18:00
Arsenal got their first win since the restart last midweek, beating Southampton thanks to two goalkeeping errors, with the Gunners creating just 0.8 xGF excluding the gifts from the Saints keeper. Their process at home under Mikel Arteta is negative (1.5 xGF, 1.6 xGA per game), but they should still prove too strong for a Norwich team looking set for the drop. Arsenal are taken to win (56%), but it will be a narrow success in a high-scoring game (55% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 2-1
Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Much-needed win for Cherries

Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Wednesday, 18:00
Bournemouth are desperate. They have been poor since the restart, picking up where they left off in that regard, but much more is expected from them here in what is a crucial game given their upcoming schedule (@ MUN, vs TOT, vs LEI, @MCI). Newcastle rank as the second worst team in the league according to xG, and were poor against Aston Villa in their last league game before a run around from Manchester City at the weekend. They are vulnerable on the road (1.9 xGA per game), so Bournemouth will fancy their chances of a win (46%) in a game that has the potential to be entertaining (55% O2.5, 58% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Everton to add to Leicester's woes

Everton vs Leicester
Wednesday, 18:00
Everton have been defensively staunch since the restart, limiting Liverpool to just 0.7 xG and Norwich to just 0.4, but they haven't yet clicked in attack as they were doing prior to the break. Since Ancelotti's arrival, the Toffees have averaged 2.0 xGF and 1.2 xGA per game, so have been performing like a top six team. Leicester are out of sorts. They are now just a point above Chelsea and three above Wolves, with their process since Christmas being that we would expect to see from a mid-table team (1.5 xGF, 1.7 xGA per game). We expect Leicester's poor run to continue, with Everton rated at a 49% chance of getting the win, with goals likely on the cards (58% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

West Ham vs Chelsea
Wednesday, 20:15
West Ham have lost both games since the restart by a 2-0 margin to teams in the top seven (WOL, TOT), so the last opponent they want to face is yet another top side. They continue to be vulnerable at the back (2.0 xGA per game), so will likely be exploited by an in-form Chelsea team. The Blues have been red hot since the restart, beating Villa before thumping Man City on the xG battle (CHE 4.2 - 0.8 MCI) and qualifying for the semi-finals of the FA Cup. The squad that Frank Lampard has should ensure that there will be no 'tired' players starting in this game, so the short turnaround can be overlooked, as Chelsea get another win (64%) in a high-scoring game (63% O2.5, 57% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 15.00

Points shared at Bramall Lane

Sheffield United vs Tottenham
Thursday, 18:00
Sheffield United haven't had it easy since the restart; having a clear goal not given vs Villa, going down to 10-men early in the second half vs Newcastle before playing at Old Trafford against an in-form Man Utd. Their display in the FA Cup was promising though, as they were the better of the sides, and their home process this season is nothing to be scoffed at (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game). Tottenham were laboured against West Ham, and were struggling to create prior to the own goal, and that opened the game up to the counter-attack. Spurs have ranked as the 11th best team in the league since Jose Mourinho joined the club, posting a negative process (1.6 xGF, 1.7 xGA per game), so it really is hard to get onside with Tottenham at the prices. The model calculates a 64% chance that the Blades avoid defeat here, with both teams netting (57%) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.40

City to beat newly crowned champions

Manchester City vs Liverpool
Thursday, 20:15
This game doesn't have quite the same buzz around it after Liverpool were crowned champions last week following Man City's defeat at Chelsea, but nonetheless it should be a high-class affair between the Premier League's best teams. City's only motivation here is to defend their points record, which Liverpool are on course to break. Pep Guardiola's side have been sensational at home from an underlying numbers perspective (2.7 xGF, 0.8 xGA per game), and Pep should field a strong team. Liverpool have done it. They can rest easy now as the maiden title is in the bag, but they will be looking to rub salt in the wound and do the double over City. They were excellent in their last outing against Crystal Palace, with the front three in particular looking sharp. We could be in for a treat here, with goals highly-likely between the Premier League's two best attacking teams (61% O2.5, 62% BTTS), with City fancied to edge proceedings - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

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