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Friday, July 3, 2020

Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW33

Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol's predictions for every match of GW33

The Premier League moves onto GW33, and Jake Osgathorpe looks the games using expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and scorelines of each match...

Brighton to pile misery on Norwich

Norwich vs Brighton
Saturday, 12:30
Norwich were miserable in midweek against Arsenal, as they created next to nothing while putting in yet another sub-par defensive effort (xG: ARS 1.7 - 0.2 NOR). It is now win or bust territory for the Canaries, who are seven points behind Watford with six games remaining, but they allow an average of 1.9 xGA per game at Carrow Road.

Brighton were thrashed by Manchester United on Tuesday, but somewhat interestingly, Graham Potter decided to rest key players for that one. Did he have an eye on this game? The Seagulls are unfortunate to be near the drop zone, ranking 10th in our xG table, and we think they will prove too strong (43%) in a high-scoring game - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.50

Much-needed win for Foxes

Leicester vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
Leicester's form has been exceptionally poor for some time now, with the Foxes winning just one of their last eight league games, a run that has seen their cushion to 5th place whittled down to just three points. There were positive signs against Everton in midweek, a game they were unfortunate to lose (xG: EVE 1.2 - 1.7 LEI).
Crystal Palace were poor on Monday against Burnley, and while they were unfortunate to lose the game, they struggled to carve out big chances, something they have had issues with all season long. Away from home their process is poor (1.0 xGF, 2.0 xGA pg), so this could be a good game for Leicester to get a crucial win (62%), though Palace should score on the counter attack (51% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

United to keep on rolling

Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Saturday, 15:00
Manchester United are motoring at the minute, winning five of their last eight league games, keeping six clean sheets in that time, a run that has seen them reign in both Leicester and Chelsea.
They are creating a host of chances at the minute with a much more free-flowing style, and they should add to Bournemouth's misery here (70%). The Cherries were woeful again in midweek, losing 4-1 to Newcastle, meaning they have lost six of their last seven games. They now sit bottom of our xG table, with an away process of 1.1 xGF and 2.0 xGA pg, so it's likely they will be on the end of another heavy defeat here - 3-0.
Back the 3-0 @ 7.40

Another narrow Wolves win

Wolves vs Arsenal
Saturday, 17:30
Wolves have been excellent all season, and since the restart, winning all three matches to nil, and they have had a nice weeks break to rest and recuperate ahead of this.
They sit fourth in our xG table, and their process is excellent (1.7 xGF, 1.1 xGA pg), meaning the price around them in this game does look a bit big. Arsenal have won three in a row in all competitions, but were gifted the win against Southampton, were second best against Sheffield United in the FA Cup and had a helping hand from Tim Krul in midweek against Norwich. Away from home under Mikel Arteta they have won once in seven, with a process on the road of 1.2 xGF and 1.8 xGA pg, plus they head into this game having played a manic schedule since the restart (WED/SAT/THU/SUN/WED). Wolves are taken to win (60%), and to keep another clean sheet - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @ 8.80

Chelsea to win thriller

Chelsea vs Watford
Saturday, 20:00
Chelsea were rolling along nicely until a midweek loss against West Ham, and they can have no qualms about the defeat, as despite dominating the ball, it was West Ham who created the better chances from set-pieces and the counter-attack (xG: WHU 2.4 - 1.7 CHE). Watford have similar traits to West Ham, so could prove to be an awkward opponent for a Chelsea team who admittedly do have an excellent process at home (2.5 xGF, 0.9 xGA pg).
Watford have struggled since the restart, and are just a point above the drop zone, after a run of one win in 10. They do struggle away from home (0.9 xGF, 1.7 xGA pg), and should be set for another defeat (67% CHE), though they are likely to get on the scoresheet (54% BTTS) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 13.50

Burnley to make it three in a row

Burnley vs Sheffield United
Sunday, 12:00
Burnley have surprised everyone since the restart, as despite getting thumped 5-0 by Manchester City, missing their two best strikers and having players leave through contracts expiring, they have won back-to-back games 1-0 to move within two points of seventh.
Their home process is very strong (1.7 xGF, 1.4 xGA pg), so can't be discounted even if Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood don't feature. Sheffield United looked back to their best in midweek with a 3-1 success over Tottenham, moving them back into seventh. That comes after back-to-back away defeats at Newcastle and Manchester United, and all-in-all their away process has been worst than their results would suggest (1.0 xGF, 1.6 xGA pg). Burnley are taken to edge another game here (46%), but we may see more goals than recent Burnley matches (51% O2.5, 54% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 13.50

Newcastle's good run to continue

Newcastle vs West Ham
Sunday, 14:15
Newcastle have been in great form of late, unbeaten in five league games and winning three of those. That upturn in results has coincided with a switch from a back three to a back four, with a more attacking mindset making them a much better watch. West Ham got a massive win in midweek against Chelsea that moved them three points clear of the drop zone, but away from home they are exceptionally vulnerable at the back (2.2 xGA pg). We think Newcastle will get another win here (43%), with goals expected from a more attacking Newcastle side (59% O2.5, 61% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.00

Liverpool to bounce back from midweek loss

Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Sunday, 16:30
Well, the champions were thumped in midweek 4-0 by Manchester City, a game to forget for Jurgen Klopp's side, though I don't think they will dwell on it for too long given the title is wrapped up.
The Reds have a proud home record to protect from now until the end of the season, having won 16 out of 16 this season (2.4 xGF, 0.9 xGA pg), so expect a reaction after a that midweek loss. Aston Villa will be well rested for this, but have won just twice away from home all season, losing 11 of 16 with the worst xG process on the road (1.2 xGF, 2.5 xGA pg). Liverpool should get another home win here (81%), and an emphatic one too (74% O2.5) - 3-0.
Back the 3-0 @ 10.50

Another home defeat for Saints

Southampton vs Manchester City
Sunday, 19:00
Southampton continue their curious trend of being the leagues worst home team (14 points from 16 games) and being one of the leagues best away teams (26 points from 16). Their process isn't actually bad at St Mary's (1.4 xGF, 1.7 xGA pg), but they face a tough task here. Manchester City were extremely impressive against Liverpool, swatting the new champions to one side with relative ease (xG: MCI 3.0 - 1.1 LIV).
They will be looking to continue making statements as the 19/20 season nears its end, and they should do that again here given their exceptional away process (2.4 xGF, 1.4 xGA pg). City should win (63%), though expect the Saints to get on the scoresheet (64% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 12.00

Spurs to fail to win again

Tottenham vs Everton
Monday, 20:00
There was so much expected of Tottenham against Sheffield United last Thursday, as they went off at 1.8 favourites, but once again they disappointed in their performance and the way they approached the game. One win in six league games means Spurs are now ninth in the table and behind North London rivals Arsenal, with Champions League qualification a pipe dream, and rightly so (14th xG table).
Everton are hot on the heels of Spurs, and could leapfrog them with victory in this game, and that would be fair based on the underlying numbers the Toffees have put up all season long (6th xG table). Since Carlo Ancelotti's appointment, they have improved even more, and will fancy their chances in this game, even if they are away from home (1.7 xGF, 1.4 xGA per away game). Everton should avoid defeat at the least here (68% EVE or draw), in a high-scoring game involving a porous Spurs back-line (58% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-2.
Back the 2-2 @ 15.50
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