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Friday, July 3, 2020

Serie A correct score predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW30

Serie A correct score predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW30

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines from a Serie A round headlined by the Turin derby.

Juventus to come out on top in derby against Torino

Juventus v Torino
Saturday, 16:15
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A local derby is rarely easy, regardless of form, and Juventus learned this in November when they needed a second-half goal from Matthijs de Ligt to scrape past neighbours Torino. Il Toro almost did Juve a huge favour in midweek, only to surrender a lead to lose at home to Lazio. While Maurizio Sarri's side are 74% to win the derby and stay unbeaten at home all season, according to Infogol's model, they could get a scare along the way.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Sassuolo to pick up back-to-back wins for the first time since early February

Sassuolo v Lecce
Saturday, 18:30
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If you want entertainment in Serie A, your best bet since the restart has been to keep an eye on Sassuolo. The Neroverdi have scored three goals in each of their last three games, but it was only against Fiorentina last time out that they emerged victorious. They should have too much for a Lecce side winless since the restart, and a team that has allowed an average 2.62 xGA per game this season, even if Fabio Liverani's side showed some improvement in their midweek defeat to Sampdoria.
Back the 3-1 @ 12.50

Lazio to show resolve to pip in-form Milan

Lazio v AC Milan
Saturday, 20:45
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Lazio have needed to dig deep in their last two games, coming from behind to best both Fiorentina and Torino, and Milan are unlikely to make it easy for them at the Stadio Olimpico. The visitors have been strong on the road all season, and come into the game off the back of seven points from nine since the restart, but a season-long unbeaten home record - with a huge 2.26 xGF per game to boot - ensures Lazio go into the game with a 45% chance of victory based on Infogol's model.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Bologna won't be able to slow down the Inter train

Inter Milan v Bologna
Sunday, 16:15
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Inter continued their fine goalscoring form in midweek, putting six goals past sorry Brescia (3.77 xGF), and Antonio Conte's side are well-placed to follow that up with another three points when Bologna come to town. Former Nerazzuri defender Siniša Mihajlović won't let his team go down without a fight, and a big win in the last away game at Sampdoria demonstrates their ability, but Inter should have too much with a 58% chance of victory.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.80

Brescia to fall short at home to Verona

Brescia v Verona
Sunday, 18:30
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Brescia have the worst home record in Serie A, with just seven points, and a heavy away defeat to Inter last time out won't fill Diego López's side with confidence. Their visitors are Verona, whose last away game against Sassuolo saw the sides share six second-half goals. Ivan Jurić's team are 44% to taste victory against a Brescia side without a home clean sheet since the turn of the year.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.00

Atalanta to all but seal Champions League spot with away win

Cagliari v Atalanta

Sunday, 18:30
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Atalanta picked up another victory on Thursday night, extending the gap to fifth-place Roma to a huge 12 points, and the Champions League quarter-finalists tightened up defensively in the process with just 0.74 xG allowed. Cagliari can make it hard for them at the Sardegna Arena, having put four past Torino (1.66 xGF) in their last home game, but Gian Piero Gasperini's visitors ought to have enough firepower to prevail and Infogol has them at 64% to win.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.60

Fiorentina to escape third straight loss by pipping Parma

Parma v Fiorentina
Sunday, 18:30
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Since a 5-1 win over Sampdoria at the end of February Fiorentina have been struggling for form and results, but another away game against out-of-form opposition can help Giuseppe Iachini's men turn their season back around. Parma have been second best in xG terms in each of their three games since the restart, winning one and losing two, but the Viola are 45% to come out on top in a tight game in which Infogol's model gives a 55% chance of both teams finding the net.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

Home comforts should be enough for Sampdoria to overcome SPAL

Sampdoria v SPAL
Sunday, 18:30
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Sampdoria's last few games have all been tight affairs, but they have a chance to secure back-to-back wins for the first time all season as they welcome SPAL to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The visitors will be without Marco d'Alessandro after his red card against Milan, whose late equaliser all but condemned Luigi di Biagio's men to relegation. The Biancazzuri will have to go for victory, but their leaky defence - allow 2.0 xGA per game on their travels - could prove their undoing. Infogol gives Samp a 57% chance in a game where we can expect goalmouth action, with 65% O2.5 and 62% BTTS.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.80

Shock win at Roma can give Udinese impetus to go back-to-back

Udinese v Genoa
Sunday, 18:30
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Udinese might have been playing against 10 men for an hour at the Olimpico, but they still needed to finish the job against Roma and their 1.98 xG to the hosts 0.96 suggests their victory was deserved. Luca Gotti's men can solidify that result with another victory as Genoa come to Friuli, and the Bianconeri are 39% favourites to take three points based on Infogol's model. Despite Udinese's lack of goals at home - just 3.13 xGF across their last three games in Udine - Genoa's more open approach on the road makes for a 59% chance of BTTS.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.80

Napoli to rebound from Atalanta disappointment at San Paolo

Napoli v Roma
Sunday, 20:45
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Napoli's defeat at Atalanta on Thursday represented a rare setback, the first time they drew a blank in Serie A since January, but they can bounce back against a Roma side with problems of their own. The visitors will be without Diego Perotti after his red card in the home defeat to Udinese, and Rino Gattuso's hosts are 44% to edge what Infogol's model anticipates as a goal-heavy game (67% O2.5, 67% BTTS)
Back the 2-1 @ 9.20