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Thứ Năm, 16 tháng 7, 2020

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW33

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW33

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines as Juventus attempt to tighten their grip on the Scudetto...

Atalanta to crush Brescia after Juve disappointment

Atalanta v Brescia
Tuesday, 20:45
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Juventus' late equaliser ended Atalanta's slim title hopes, but the Champions League quarter-finalists can still move one step closer to a best-ever finish of second with a win aganist Brescia. Gian Piero Gasperini's side should be comfortable against their lowly opponents, with an 86% chance of victory according to Infogol's model, and this game - like so many other Atalanta fixtures this season - should produce goals (65% O3.5, 55% BTTS).
Back the 3-1 @ 11.50

Milan to have no issues against bottom-half Parma

AC Milan v Parma
Wednesday, 18:30
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Milan survived a tough test against Napoli on Sunday, with Franck Kessié's penalty earning them a point and extending their unbeaten run to six games. A Parma side conceding nearly 2 xGA per game on the road this season is unlikely to hold them up, with Infogol giving the Rossoneri a 70% chance of victory, and it's a chance for the hosts to impress head coach in waiting Ralf Rangnick by improving on a home record of just 19 goals scored.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Napoli to take advantage of deflated Bologna

Bologna v Napoli
Wednesday, 18:30
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Bologna will be looking for a reaction after surrendering a 2-0 lead at Parma last time out, but three straight games of less than 1 xGF at home doesn't bode well. Napoli have been good travellers all season, averaging just 1.19 xGA away from the San Paolo, and a strong showing in front of goal since the Serie A restart should mean they have enough to outpunch their opponents and stay in the top six.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.40

Sampdoria to edge closer to safety with home win

Sampdoria v Cagliari
Wednesday, 18:30
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Sampdoria earned a big three points at the weekend, winning at Udinese in a game with fewer big chances than the 3-1 scoreline suggests. That win took them six points clear of the bottom three with six games remaining, and if they pick up another win against a Cagliari side which has overperformed its xG on the road - and Infogol gives them a 51% chance of doing so - the relegation fears should be eased.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.60

Fiorentina to remain hard to beat as they travel to Lecce

Lecce v Fiorentina
Wednesday, 20:45
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Lecce are back in the bottom three despite leaving Cagliari with a point, and they'll fancy their chances at home to Fiorentina, but the visitors have been efficient at home and away lately. Giuseppe Iachini's team are unbeaten in three, creating plenty of chances as they beat Parma in their last game on the road, and Infogol's model gives them a 55% chance of extending it to four against Lecce's porous defence, with both teams to score at a massive 68%.
Back the 1-3 @ 17.50

Free-scoring Roma to breeze past Verona

Roma v Verona

Wednesday, 20:45
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With 2.38 xGF per game at home, Roma's frontline should have no trouble breaking down a Verona defence allowing 1.62 xGA away from home and which last won on the road in early January. After making hard work of Parma in their last home game, conceding from the visitors' only shot on target, this ought to be more comfortable. Infogol's model agrees, anticipating a high-scoring affair with a 67% chance of a home victory.
Back the 3-1 @ 14.50

Juve to halt Sassuolo's European charge

Sassuolo v Juventus
Wednesday, 20:45
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Sassuolo's impressive win at Lazio was richly deserved, and a run of 14 points from six games has Roberto De Zerbi's team nipping at the heels of the top seven, but the visit of champions-elect Juventus could be one challenge too far. Despite their recent blip, the Bianconeri are 53% to get their first win in three as Cristiano Ronaldo aims to push Lazio's Ciro Immobile all the way in the capocannionere stakes and edge closer to the 30-goal mark.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.40

Lazio to recover from worrying league run in Udine
Udinese v Lazio
Wednesday, 20:45
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After a season-long title battle, Lazio are in danger of finishing fourth in a two-horse race after suffering a third straight defeat. Simone Inzaghi's team have a chance to wake from their slumber with an away match against Udinese, and the prospect of a side averaging just one xGF per home game is just the tonic. Lazio are only narrow favourites, with Infogol's model rating their chances at 41% to Udinese's 33%, but they should have enough to get back on track.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

Genoa to up push for safety with win in Turin

Torino v Genoa
Thursday, 18:30
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Torino briefly looked on course for a shock win at Inter when Samir Handanović gifted Andrea Belotti an opener, but instead go into their battle with relegation-fighting Genoa off the back of a 3-1 defeat. Their opponents brushed aside a limp SPAL last time out, and can extend an unbeaten away run stretching back to January with Moreno Longo's hosts conceding 1.72 xGA per home game and a similar number of actual goals.
Back the 1-2 @ 13.00

Inter to punish SPAL and tighten grip on second place

SPAL v Inter Milan
Thursday, 20:45
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Inter's come-from-behind win against Torino demonstrated their attacking depth, with Diego Godin the 13th different player to score for Antonio Conte's side since the restart. They should have too much for SPAL, who look doomed after a sixth winless game, especially when you consider Inter's 1.7 xGF and 1.06 xGA on the road. With matches against Roma, Napoli and Atalanta on the horizon, Conte will see this as one of the more winnable games for his team. Infogol agrees, giving them a 65% chance of picking up an 11th away win of the season.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.00
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