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Friday, July 17, 2020

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW34

Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW34

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely Serie A winners and scorelines with big games at the top and bottom...

Atalanta to keep flying away to Verona

Verona v Atalanta
Saturday, 16:15
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Atalanta's draw at Juventus was just a bump in the road, and trust me, I know how ridiculous that sounds as a concept. Gian Piero Gasperini's team put six past Brescia back in Bergamo as they continue to both score and concede above their xG, and the numbers point to another victory in Verona. The hosts are winless in four, but a season-long xGA of just 1.21 at home suggests they can at least emerge with some pride as long as Atalanta don't continue their ridiculous shooting form.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Sassuolo to return from Cagliari with unbeaten run intact

Cagliari v Sassuolo
Sunday, 18:30
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A 3-3 draw against Juventus is an achievement in most situations, but to record 10 shots on target in the game shows you just how dangerous Sassuolo have been in front of goal lately. Their last six games have brought 17 goals (from 10.41 xG), and the firepower of players like Francesco Caputo ensures Infogol has them as narrow favourites to leave Sardinia with all three points, with BTTS at a hefty 65%.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.80

Milan to succeed where Inter failed against Bologna

AC Milan v Bologna
Saturday, 20:45
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Milan have been on a tear at the San Siro lately, winning three on the spin with dominant attacking performances, and they shouldn't be put off by the arrival of a Bologna side which recently won on the same ground against Inter. The Rossoneri are 56% to win with Infogol, having averaged 1.67 xGF at home this season and outperformed that average in the recent victories over Roma, Juventus and Parma.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Sampdoria to earn third straight win by punishing Parma

Parma v Sampdoria
Sunday, 16:15
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Sampdoria have been doing what they need to drag themselves out of the mire, with Atalanta the only team keeping them from four wins in their last four games. It's the opposite for Parma, who haven't won since putting four past Parma on June 23, and Samp have the tools to pile more misery on Roberto d'Aversa's team. Parma's last home clean sheet came in January, and while both teams could well find themselves on the scoresheet, Sampdoria's 45% chance of victory isn't often the sort of thing you'll find from a team away to a team above them in the table.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Brescia to doom SPAL in basement battle

Brescia v SPAL
Sunday, 18:30
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Brescia and SPAL have been cast adrift at the bottom to the point that the loser of this game will be all but down, and the hosts carry a narrow edge according to Infogol's model. Neither team has picked up a point from any of their last three games, but SPAL will find it tough to rebound from a hammering at the hands of Inter, especially when they have been allowing 1.98 xGA per game on the road and almost as many actual goals.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.00
Fiorentina to edge towards mid-table by beating Torino
Fiorentina v Torino
Sunday, 18:30
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Midweek wins for Fiorentina and Torino means both can begin looking up rather than down, and Giuseppe Iachini's Viola should have enough about them to get revenge on a side which beat them 2-1 back in December. An underwhelming home record betrays the hosts' xGF return at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, and there ought to be goals in this game with Infogol's model giving a 60% chance of more than 2.5 goals and putting both teams to score at 58%.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Genoa to prevail in massive six-pointer

Genoa v Lecce
Sunday, 18:30
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Genoa's recent victory over SPAL has set up what is essentially a straight fight between them and Lecce for safety, with Thursday's defeat at Torino ensuring this weekend's game is as important as ever with just a point separating the sides. The reverse fixture ended 2-2 and Infogol forecasts plenty of goals once more, but the evergreen Goran Pandev can help the home side prevail at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Back the 3-1 @ 14.50
Napoli to silence Udinese and return to winning ways
Napoli v Udinese
Sunday, 18:30
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Successive draws have slowed the Rino Gattuso praise train a little, but Napoli are unlikely to be caused too many problems by an Udinese side with easier games on the horizon. The visitors almost have enough points on the board already, and their status as lowest scorers outside the bottom three is unlikely to change against a Napoli side with just 1.15 xGA at home this season and just 0.91 across the last three games at the San Paolo.
Back the 2-0 @ 7.80

In-form Roma to puncture Inter's charge for second

Roma v Inter
Sunday, 20:45
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Roma's astounding goal return at the Olimpico, averaging almost 2.4 xGF per game all season long, gives them the edge over an Inter side with 6.01 xGF of their own across the last three away games. Infogol's model gives a massive 72% chance of both sides finding the net, with Paulo Fonseca's hosts given a 42% chance of a victory which will see the Giallorossi assured of a European place if Sassuolo lose to Cagliari.
Back the 3-1 @ 23.00

Juventus to triumph in what was meant to be a big title showdown

Juventus v Lazio
Monday, 20:45
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When Serie A restarted, this had the potential to be a title shootout, but Lazio's failure to capitalise on Juventus' dip in form means the hosts are already almost over the line. Maurizio Sarri's men are 57% to draw a line under their opponents' scudetto challenge, according to Infogol's model, with the Ronaldo-Immobile goalscoring battle now taking centre-stage with goals forecast (65% O2.5, BTTS 62%).
Back the 2-1 @ 13/2