Latest News

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Serie A Tips: Juve to end Atalanta run while Napoli-Milan will deliver goals

Serie A Tips: Juve to end Atalanta run while Napoli-Milan will deliver goals

Dave Farrar predicts the Old Lady will terminate La Dea's nine-game winning streak, as well as goals galore in Udinese-Sampdoria and at the Stadio San Paolo...

End of the road for Atalanta

Juventus v Atalanta
Saturday, 20.45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
When Juventus were cruising to a 2-0 lead against Milan on Tuesday night, I thought that we were safely banking another winner, as I'm sure most of you did. The bedlam that followed was largely the doing of magnificent Milan, and Stefano Pioli currently has them playing as well as anyone in Serie A.
But that defeat, thanks to further slip-ups by Lazio and Inter, is unlikely to alter the direction of this season's Scudetto race, but I suppose things could potentially get interesting if Juve lose against in form Atalanta this Saturday night.
Atalanta have now won nine in a row, but have looked sketchy in their last two games, against Cagliari and Sampdoria, and Samp in particular troubled them and could certainly have made life interesting by scoring at the Gewiss Stadium.
Gian Piero Gasperini admits that Atalanta are starting to suffer physically with the rigours of this crammed-in season, and they look tired as they head to the Champions. We all wax lyrical about Atalanta, and I've written here that I think they could win the Champions League this season, but they're tired, and Juve do remain an excellent football team. One that won the reverse by three goals to one.
I'm pretty sure that Atalanta's run of wins will come to an end on Saturday, and I think that it will do so with a defeat. Juve are certainly overpriced to beat them.

Football breaks out in Friuli

Udinese v Sampdoria
Sunday, 18.30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
These two sides have picked up big recent wins which just about guarantee them another season in Serie A (although Samp are still looking over their shoulders), and both, rather against type, have done so by scoring goals and playing a bit. I was expecting them to take the attritional route, but Udinese in particular have surprised me.
Kevin Lasagna has turned into the League's in-form striker since lockdown, scoring in his last four games, and while he's unlikely to get to Fabio Quagliarella territory, it illustrates neatly what Udinese have been doing lately: playing a bit, scoring enough, heads just about above water.
Udinese have now scored at least twice in each of their last four games, and Samp aren't good enough at the back to stop them here, but do provide a threat of their own, one that they're increasingly willing to deploy. Strong running midfielders supporting Manolo Gabbiadini, and suddenly chances created. The Atalanta game in midweek was the first time they've failed to score since late January.
All of that adds up to goals, and the bonus for us is that most of the world disagrees. Which means that we can back Over 2.5 Goals at a healthy 2.28.

Goals guaranteed in Naples

Napoli v Milan
Sunday, 20.45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
Milan take their red hot form to Naples next, where they face a Napoli team who have won four of their last five. My initial instinct here was to back Milan at a generous looking 3.70, but they're just too inconsistent for me to trust at San Paolo, and I think that the goals market in this game provides us with another good opportunity.
Napoli have once again showed their vulnerability against both Roma and Genoa this week, and they've now failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four games. Milan have kept two clean sheets since the season resumed, but have also shown their propensity to get involved in firefights, the latest being that remarkable 4-2 win against Juventus on Tuesday.
Over 3.5 Goals look a little overpriced to me at 3.10. There is so much quality going forward on both teams, whether it's obvious threats like Lorenzo Insigne and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, or deeper lying threats such as Ante Rebic or Jose Callejon. Either way, both defences will be under pressure and while Milan do look a fraction overpriced, I'm happier to play the Over 3.5 Goals.