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Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Serie A Tips: Napoli to batter Bologna, overs and unders elsewhere

Serie A Tips: Napoli to batter Bologna, overs and unders elsewhere

Dave Farrar predicts Gennaro Gattuso's men will get back to winning ways, while goals markets provide value for Cagliari and Lazio...

Napoli to resume run

Bologna v Napoli
Wednesday, 18:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
After a week of extraordinary drama, and a post-lockdown period of play in which it has been hard to catch a breath, we have a fairly mundane looking midweek round of fixtures, in which it would seem that not too much will be decided.
We have quite a weekend to come, with Juventus and Lazio, Lecce and Genoa, not to mention Roma and Inter, all going head-to-head, but unless there's a major midweek surprise, the League will go about its business this week without too many fireworks.
Our job is to find three bets, and having watched Napoli a great deal in recent weeks, I'm impressed with the extent to which they've improved under Gennaro Gattuso, especially since lockdown. They were angry to throw away two points against Milan on Sunday night, but have still won 4 of 6 since they resumed, and should have far too much for Bologna.
Sinisa Mihajlovic's team threw away a two-goal lead in added on time at Parma at the weekend, and will be stung by that, but I don't think there'll be too much redemption here. They've won twice away from home since Serie A got back underway, but have already lost here against Juve and Sassuolo, and drawn with Cagliari.
There's nothing too fearsome about a trip to an empty Dall' Ara, then, and I expect a fluent Napoli to do something very similar to Juve, and win by two clear goals. I appreciate that it's not an overly sexy price, but 1.86 still seems a little big to me, which makes Napoli the bet of the week.

Cagliari keep it tight

Sampdoria v Cagliari
Wednesday, 18:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
I mentioned at the weekend how Sampdoria were a little underrated as a goalscoring team, and they duly won 3-1 at Udinese, but they may be in for a very different kind of experience here.
They face a Cagliari side who have drawn their last two games 0-0, and who have clearly set their stall out under Walter Zenga to make themselves hard to beat. Samp are much more comfortable against teams who want to come and play, and I think that they'll struggle to break the Sardinians down, with another 0-0 a decent runner here at around 12.00.
Under 2.5 Goals are attractively priced (and surprisingly so) at 2.00. While Samp have been among the goals lately (they last failed to score on January 26th), Cagliari will come to defend, and with a point moving Samp closer to definitive safety, I wouldn't be surprised to see Claudio Ranieri settle for that, or happy to celebrate a narrow win. Either way, I don't think it'll be a goalfest, and backing the "Unders" at even money makes sense.

Lazio bound to rally

Udinese v Lazio
Wednesday, 20:45
Live on Premier Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video
It's extremely tempting to back Udinese to continue the Lazio nightmare. They are 3.90 to inflict a fourth consecutive defeat on Simone Inzaghi's tiring team, but given how poor Udinese have been themselves, I'll swerve that opportunity on the basis that the tide has to turn for Lazio sometime soon.
The most frustrating thing for Inzaghi, and indeed for Antonio Conte, is the extent to which Juventus have slipped up. Rarely do they take one point from six, and yet that has been the case this week, with neither Lazio nor Inter able to do damage of their own.
The Scudetto has surely gone for Lazio, and Juve could even confirm that title win when they face Inzaghi's side next Monday night, so now it's about pride and second place, and I believe that Inzaghi can get his team right for this.
They're tired, but they still have quality, they were still good enough to be in the title argument deep into the campaign, and we might just see the best of them there. Lazio are trading at 2.14 for the win, but I'm more interested, as I was in Udinese v Samp at the weekend, in the goals markets. Three of Udinese's last five games have gone Over 3.5 Goals, and 8 of Lazio's last 9 have had Over 2.5 Goals, which means that I'm prepared to back Over 3.5 here at a generous 3.40.
That price looks too big, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lazio inflict a similar defeat on Udinese to the one they suffered against Samp at the weekend.