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Saturday, July 4, 2020

Southampton v Manchester City: Another home loss for Saints

Southampton v Manchester City: Another home loss for Saints

St Mary's is not a happy home for Southampton and Dan Fitch is backing Manchester City to pile on the misery when the sides meet on Sunday...

Southampton 10.00 v Manchester City 1.34; The Draw 6.20
Sunday 5 July, 19:00
Live on BBC One

Southampton home trend continues

When the season resumed and Southampton won their first match away at Norwich, many thought that they'd go on to cause a minor upset against Arsenal in their next game.
Those that got caught up in the hype, forgot one important factor. Southampton were at home and their record at St Mary's, is truly awful. They duly lost the match 2-0.
Southampton have the worst home form in the Premier League this season (P16 W4 D2 L10). Fortunately they have the fifth best away record (P16 W8 D2 L6) and the Saints followed their defeat to Arsenal with a 3-1 win at Watford. A natural counter-attacking side, Southampton will at least be facing an opponent in Manchester City, who will have most of the ball.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has two injury worries ahead of this match. Both Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Sofiane Boufal missed the game against Watford.

Manchester City take revenge on champions

It must have hurt Manchester City to have to give Liverpool a guard of honour when the two rivals met at the Etihad on Thursday. They took that hurt out on their opponents.
The resulting 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool was a statement of intent, from a team eager to prove that the Premier League title is only out on loan. Manchester City are fighting hard to avoid a ban from Europe, but if they are barred from the Champions League it will make them formidable opponents for Liverpool in the 2020-21 season.
For now City can concentrate on securing second place and trying to win the FA Cup and Champions League. With the EFL Cup already won, there is still the opportunity for City to have an extremely successful season, even accounting for their failure to truly challenge Liverpool in the Premier League.
Pep Guardiola has one less world class player to choose from in his squad, after Leroy Sane completed a transfer to Bayern Munich. Sergio Aguero remains out with a knee injury.

City have been scoring early

Manchester City are the favourites at 1.34, with the draw at 6.20 and Southampton at 10.00.
Given Southampton's home record, this short price for a Manchester City win does not look unrealistic. You can boost the odds to 2.00 by backing City to win half-time/full-time, which has paid out in all four of the games that they have won since the season restarted.
Manchester City also kept clean sheets in all of those games. You can back Manchester City to win to nil at 2.26.

Another high scoring match

City are awash with in-form attacking options. Kevin De Bruyne is sublime, Raheem Sterling is scoring again, Riyad Mahrez is playing his best football since Leicester's title win and Phil Foden seems a sensational talent.
With Southampton also possessing a cutting edge in Danny Ings, over 3.5 goals at 2.48 should at the very least provide a trading option. As mentioned, Manchester City tend to score in the first-half and an early goal will see these odds crash.
Gabriel Jesus is the favourite to score at 2.20, but seems poor value having not found the net since the season restarted. Sterling has scored in three in that time and is 2.30, while De Bruyne has four and is 3.10. For Southampton, Ings is 3.50 to add to his total of 18 goals.