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Saturday, July 4, 2020

What The Stats Say: Liverpool will recover with Villa win

What The Stats Say: Liverpool will recover with Villa win

Dan Fitch is expecting Liverpool to win to nil against Aston Villa, as he analyses the Opta Stats for this weekend's Premier League matches.

Seagulls can steal points from Canaries

Norwich 3.60 v Brighton 2.32; The Draw 3.50
"Norwich have lost their last five games in all competitions, their worst losing run under Daniel Farke. It is Farke's joint-worst losing run in his managerial career, also losing five consecutively as SV Lippstadt boss in November 2013."
Brighton have only won one game in 2020, but with Norwich playing so badly, backing the Seagulls in the Draw No Bet market at 1.64 seems a relatively low risk option.

Don't expect goals in first-half

Leicester 1.71 v Crystal Palace 6.40; The Draw 3.80
"Crystal Palace have netted just nine Premier League goals before half-time this season, failing to score in the first half a joint league-high 24 times. In a completed Premier League season, only Sunderland in 2002-03 and Aston Villa in 2015-16 (both 8) have netted fewer in the opening 45 minutes."
With Leicester struggling to score goals right now, the 0-0 half-time score looks value at 2.78.

Hosts will keep clean sheet against struggling visitors

Manchester United 1.20 v Bournemouth 21.00; The Draw 8.00
"Manchester United have kept five clean sheets in their last six Premier League home games (W4 D1 L1) - as many as they had in their previous 32 at Old Trafford. They're looking to win four consecutive home league games without conceding for the first time since a run of six ending in October 2017."
Bournemouth are not posing much of an attacking threat these days and Manchester United should win to nil, at odds of 1.83.

Arsenal have poor record against teams above them

Wolves 2.36 v Arsenal 3.40; The Draw 3.50
"Arsenal haven't won any of their last 17 Premier League away games against sides starting the day higher than them in the table (D5 L12), with their last such victory coming in September 2015 against eventual champions Leicester City (5-2)."
Wolves have won all their games since the season restarted and should claim another win at 2.36.

Watford can score away at Chelsea

Chelsea 1.45 v Watford 9.20; The Draw 4.90
"66% of the Premier League goals Chelsea have conceded this season have come in the second half (29/44), the highest ratio in the division."
Chelsea conceded twice in the second-half against West Ham on Wednesday and both teams to score looks overpriced at 1.97.

Clarets will avoid defeat

Burnley 2.98 v Sheffield United 2.86; The Draw 3.10
"Burnley are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), keeping a clean sheet in three of those."
It looks like Burnley are being underestimated here and you can odds of 2.02 for them in the Draw No Bet market.

Magpies a big price to win again

Newcastle 2.76 v West Ham 2.86; The Draw 3.40
"Newcastle United are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W3 D2), their best run since going undefeated in their last six games of the 2015-16 season under Rafael Benítez."
West Ham may be coming off a morale boosting win against Chelsea, but Newcastle's price of 2.76 is too big to ignore.

Liverpool will get back to winning ways

Liverpool 1.37 v Aston Villa 9.20; The Draw 5.90
"Aston Villa have lost 13 of their last 15 away Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table (D2), since beating Leeds 2-1 in January 2000."
With Aston Villa struggling to score goals, Liverpool should win this one to nil at 2.50.

City will score goals at St Mary's

Southampton 10.00 v Manchester City 1.34; The Draw 6.20
"Manchester City's 4-0 win over Liverpool was their 25th Premier League win by four or more goals since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016-17 - seven more than any other club in that time."
Southampton are not at their best at home and over 3.5 goals could land again at 2.48.

Kane has great record against Everton

Tottenham 2.18 v Everton 3.60; The Draw 3.70
"Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored twice in each of this last four Premier League games against Everton - no player has ever scored 2+ goals in five consecutive games against an opponent in the competition."
With two goals in three games since the season resumed, Kane looks value at 2.28 to score again.
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