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Saturday, July 11, 2020

Wolves v Everton: Comeback kings can do it again

Wolves v Everton: Comeback kings can do it again

Slow-starting Wolves host quick-out-of-the-blocks Everton in the Premier League on Sunday which leads Andy Schooler to back two big prices regarding a home fightback.
Wolves v Everton
Sunday July 12, 12:00
Live on Sky One, Sky Sports Premier League & SS Main Event
Back-to-back defeats for Wolves over the past week have seen their Champions League hopes dim but they would still appear to have more to play for than Everton in the first of Sunday's Premier League games.

Blues' Euro hopes look over

The Toffees have also disappointed this week, their hopes of European football next season seemingly over after a dreary 1-0 loss at Spurs and Thursday's 1-1 home draw with Southampton.
They subsequently come into this match five points behind Arsenal in eighth, a position which could be good enough for a place in the Europa League.
With just four games remaining, it's going to be a tough ask for Carlo Ancelotti's men, whose form suggests they are unlikely to be picking up the 10 or 12 points they probably need to finish that high.
They were woeful at Spurs and little better against Saints, a game which saw them outplayed in a first half and lose Andre Gomes to injury. He may yet be fit for this game, though.
This will be their third game in just seven days, another factor which will weigh against them here. After Thursday's game, Ancelotti spoke of how "one less day recovery" meant his side "physically had more difficulties".

Traore could yet play

Everton have the same situation to deal with here.
Wolves' late 1-0 loss to Sheffield United came on Wednesday evening and followed Saturday's 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal.
Star winger Adama Traore came off against the Blades with a suspected dislocated shoulder but is in contention to play here. Losing him would certainly be a blow.

Hosts short enough

Nuno's men have only won six of their 17 home games this season, seven of which have been drawn, so clearly there are reasons to be concerned about backing the hosts at 2.08 to win the game.
Neither can the visitors be backed with much confidence - they are 4.30 for the win - after their two displays this week. You must also wonder whether Ancelotti is about to start thinking about next season given realistically his side won't be qualifying for Europe now. Team news could be key.
Whoever plays, goals look unlikely to be in great supply - of the 10 games these teams have played since the resumption, only one has seen over 2.5 goals.

Low goals trend

It's also been a longer-term trend at Molineux with only 35% of games at the ground delivering three or more goals.
Sadly the market is very much clued up with under 2.5 offered at 1.58.
While it's not hard to envisage a Wolves win and/or under 2.5 goals coming in, I'd prefer to take a chance on a bigger price which draws on the nature of these two teams across the course of the season.

Stats suggest a comeback

Wolves have been notoriously bad starters - in a table of first-half performances, Wolves sit rock bottom. They have scored only 12 first-half goals, conceding 24.
However, in the second half of games, Wolves have scored a remarkable 33 times, conceding only 13 and hold the fourth-best record in the second 45 minutes.
Overall, Wolves have won 21 points from behind this season - the highest total in the league.
In contrast, Everton impress in the first half (they sit fifth in that table) but struggle after the break (18th). The latter is of particular concern given their workload this week.
So how to take advantage of theses contrasting statistics?
You could back Wolves to win from behind (12/1) and/or draw from behind (15/2). Dutching the two bets pays just over 4/1.
The half-time/full-time market also offers options.
Everton-Draw is at 20.00 with Everton-Wolves a whopping 40.00. With Wolves having already won four games this season in which they've trailed at the break, it's a price I can't resist backing to small stakes.
However, for the main bet I'll plump for Everton to score first and fail to win at 5/1 with the Sportsbook.
It doesn't offer as much flexibility as 'lead and fail to win' but given the teams' recent goal stats, if Everton are to blow a lead it seems likely they will have to score first.

Gordon's double looks tasty

A final mention goes to Everton youngster Anthony Gordon in the shots markets.
It's often the case that the layers get their lines wrong when it comes to players who have only just come onto the scene and that may be the case with Gordon who is 2/1 to have two or more shots.
The midfielder managed two at both West Ham and Spurs - and in both games he played just 45 minutes.
A player who likes to get on the front foot, Gordon looks a likely starter here and if the teenager continues his eyecatching form, he's capable of landing this bet.

Opta fact

Everton have conceded 32 away goals in the Premier League this season; only Aston Villa and Newcastle (both 35) have shipped more so far in 2019/20.